House prices to drop by 10% – OBR

The government’s independent forecaster has reflected on what impact yesterday’s Budget is going to have on the UK economy in the coming years, as well as house prices.

In documents released alongside the Spring Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility is predicting that house prices will fall by 10% from their high in the last three months of 2022, with prices not expected to recover until 2027-28.

And property transactions are expected to drop by 20% from their peak at the end of last year too.

It says indicators from Halifax and Nationwide suggest that house prices have already fallen by 3 to 6% between their peak in the middle of 2022 and February 2023.

The OBR thinks low consumer confidence, the squeeze on real incomes and the expectation of mortgage rate rises to come will contribute to house prices continuing to fall and fewer of them being bought and sold.


UK house prices predicted to drop by at least 10%



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  1. John Murray

    The same OBR that predicted we will go into recession….oh, they now say we won’t.

    Of the 10% fall they predict, it is a fall of just 1.1% in 2023, with the 3-6% already in place, so that would be a further 3% drop or so in 2024.

    I don’t believe it – the falls have already taken place – I went live with a 3-bed detached last night at 9pm – woken up to 3 viewing requests already so will do a viewing day on Saturday – I bet it sells and the price will be right for the current market, reflecting the 3-6% falls already in place.

    Non-property experts really do not know the market and what really goes on – according to PIE today we are also going to see a mortgage uptake surge – what, in a poor housing market?

    Every home sells in any market if the price is right and the marketing is good – prices have stabilised and with inflation now expected to drop from 10.5% to 2/5% THIS YEAR, we are in a NORMAL housing market and anyone who talks it down has another agenda, in my opinion.

  2. Cardiff Agent

    I agree with John Murray, the market is active and properties correctly priced are selling in a short period, several at asking prices. Mortgage schemes and rates are helping matters.  Don’t listen to the doom mongers who have little or no experience of the property market, they are invariably wrong, but still have a negative affect that is no good to anyone.


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