UK house prices predicted to drop by at least 10%

House prices in the UK are likely to fall by at least 10% peak to trough as a consequence of higher mortgage borrowing costs and the general cost of living crisis, according to John Charcol.

Activity in the housing market as a whole has fallen sharply since October, but for anyone planning to move at the moment are likely to find that it will be an easier time to buy – but a more challenging time to sell.

While there will be less competition from other purchasers in the buying market, Ray Boulger, senior mortgage technical manager at John Charcol, believes that achieving a sale will become all about being prepared to accept the best current offer – rather than holding out for a price which might have been achieved previously.

The biggest single factor influencing house prices is mortgage interest rates, and although the cost of fixed rate mortgages has fallen back from the levels seen previously, they are still much higher than rates available up until 2021.

Boulger said: “The cheapest five-year fixed rates available now are just under 4%, compared with under 1% in 2021, and I don’t expect rates to fall much further this year.

“The impact on affordability of such a large interest rate increase so quickly will result in house prices continuing to fall for several more months – and I expect a peak to trough fall of 10-12%.”

“See below for the number of annual housing transactions going back to 2006. John Charcol predicts a modest fall in transaction numbers this year, to around 1.15m.



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  1. Agent1234567

    Reading this chart the calendar year of 2022 recorded the 4th highest levels of transactions in the last 16 years, and that’s including 3 months where the government basically hit the pause button. Why are industry ‘experts’ people being so negative.

  2. BillyTheFish

    Probably the -14.8% in 2022, cost of living crisis, high mortgage interest rates, high rent increases, energy crisis, fuel crisis to name a few.

    It is not just the industry, it is also UK banks predicting a 7-10% drop/crash.

  3. TDGC

    Oh I just love this sort of stuff….. not! At the end of the day, if people need to move, they need to move. If prices go down on sale, they’ll probably be going down on purchase… just saying.

    It’s all relative to me.

  4. willh

    We’ve already seen a 10%+ reduction in asking price since October last year, are they saying we will see a further drop of 10% making 20% total or have they seen the reduction in asking prices and are waiting for these to complete and the numbers appear on land reg?

    either way, we still have a shortage of stock. until that changes prices will still be buoyed.


    5% more- then level-then  back up next year !

    Lack of supply -decent demand


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