The autumn bounce in the housing market that estate agents had been hoping for has fallen flat. 

Despite indications that inflation and interest rates may be heading in a more positive direction, fresh data from Landmark’s newly released Q3 Residential Property Trends report shows a subdued market as the usual post-summer uplift failed to materialise. 

Continued market uncertainty and affordability issues had a continued impact on Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC) levels in the last quarter, with September seeing the biggest negative variation to the pre-COVID benchmark of 2019 so far this year at 49% down vs 2019 levels.  

Similarly, this muted cross-market picture can be seen at valuation stage, with valuation volumes failing to improve (38% down on 2019 levels in September) – further demonstrating the affordability constraints home-movers are facing.  

However, despite the overall picture of a flatter market, supply remains relatively healthy as we head into Q4. Listings were 3% higher than 2019 benchmark levels in September.  

Key findings from the report 

Cross market activity 

  • Listing volumes in Q3 ‘23 have remained relatively strong with both August reporting a 2% increase and September showing a 3% increase on the same months in ‘19.  

  • SSTC volumes in Q3 ’23 tracked 36% below Q3‘19.  

  • Search order volumes in Q3 ’23 recovered slightly over the quarter but were still 36% down on Q3 ‘19 volumes in September.  

  • Completions levels in Q3 ‘23 were 4% higher vs Q2 ‘23 but 35% down compared to Q3 ‘19.   

Listings data  

  • Listing levels crept over the 2019 benchmark in both August and September, with August reporting a 2% increase and September a 3% uplift on the same period in ‘19.  

  • Supply is consistent with Q2 ‘23 levels, 1% up over the last 6 months.  

SSTC 

  • SSTC volumes in Q3 ’23 tracked 36% below levels seen in Q3‘19.  

  • Although SSTC volumes rose by 6% in August ‘23 on the month prior, this was a reflection of an unusual drop in SSTC levels seen during August ‘19.  

Property Search to SSTC 

  • Supply is in arelatively positive position with levels 3% lower in July ’23 vs ’19 and 3% higher in Sept ’23 vs ’19. 

  • However, demand is struggling with volumes 38% lower in July ’23 vs ‘19 and 39% lower in Sept ’23 vs ‘19.

Mortgage valuations to approvals

  • Higher borrowing costs have cooled demand, resulting in a decline in both mortgage volumes and approvals this quarter.

Simon Brown, CEO of Landmark Information Group, said: “Amidst the ongoing challenges of the economic landscape, our data paints a picture of an unusually muted yet stable market. The post-summer bounce back we would usually expect to provide a boost going into Q4 hasn’t yet happened, leaving the market in a remarkably flat position. 

“While this stabilisation means an end to the volatility of previous quarters, it also leaves us in unchartered waters, with few in the industry remembering such a prolonged period of stagnation. However, we are operating in a resilient market, meaning growth will eventually return. For now, we wait to see what the external landscape brings in Q4.”