Residential property prices will fall 3.6% in the first quarter of the year, based on deals agreed between buyers and sellers in Q4 2023, Reallymoving’s House Price Forecast Q1 2024 shows.

The research is based on analysis of approximately 115,000 conveyancing quote forms, which are completed by buyers once a deal is agreed, giving insight into what they have agreed to pay before the transaction completes. The graph below shows how Reallymoving’s data anticipates Land Registry housing market trends

Conveyancing quote data indicates what buyers have agreed to pay three months before Land Registry data is published: 

Reallymoving captures the price buyers have just agreed to pay for a property when they secure quotes for conveyancing services on the comparison site. This service is used by almost 10% of all home movers in the UK, providing a unique forecast of Land Registry data in 3 months’ time.

Analysis of house price data from over 115,000 conveyancing quotes shows that the average property price will fall from £323,594 in Q4 2023 to £311,936 in Q1 2024. Annual house price growth is also at -3.6%, meaning house prices are currently £11,500 lower than a year ago.

Stubbornly high inflation and general economic doom and gloom has continued to put the brakes on housing market activity, though there are signs that sentiment is now beginning to improve as mortgage rates ease, boosting affordability.

New registrations for home move services on reallymoving, including conveyancing, surveying and removals, were 73% higher in the first week of January 2024 than the same period last year. Although, activity at the start of 2023 was heavily hampered by the disastrous ‘mini-Budget’ which had taken place just a few weeks previously.

Rob Houghton, founder and CEO of reallymoving, said: “Based on sales agreed at the end of last year we can expect to see more downward movement in house prices at the start of 2024, but probably not for long. There’s a good deal of pent-up demand from movers who held off last year and we’re already seeing much higher demand for conveyancing quote services. It’s been painful, but many buyers have now adjusted to higher borrowing costs and if mortgage rates continue to fall steadily, as the traditional spring buying window opens up I expect we’ll see significantly more buyers making the decision to enter the market.

“First-time buyer volumes are up notably in January, now accounting for 61% of all home movers. Many more will be weighing up their options, trying to time their move perfectly to benefit from falling mortgage rates and lower house prices. The market can start to heat up again quite quickly, so I’d advise buyers hoping to move this spring to plan ahead now by speaking with a mortgage broker and applying for an agreement in principle, whilst keeping a watchful eye on the market for further rate falls.”

Regional forecasts