More stamp duty changes on the horizon as Labour on course for significant majority

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng confirmed a ‘permanent’ stamp duty cut in the mini-Budget announcement on Friday. But the reality is that more changes are likely if the conservatives fail to win the next general election, scheduled to take place in 2024.

New polling suggests that Labour is currently on course to win a majority of 56 in the next election.

The polling is from Savanta ComRes. And, significantly, the 56-seat majority projection is based on an MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) analysis.

MRP involves polling the public and then trying to project what that would mean on a seat-by-seat basis by taking the polling data for particularly demographic groups and cross-referencing that against the demographic profile of every constituency in Britain.

The MRP model, conducted in conjunction with Electoral Calculus, shows Labour (45%) with a 12pt lead over the Conservatives (33%) in Great Britain, generating a commanding majority if such a result were to play out at the next election.

A new Labour government would almost certainly lead to more major tax changes, with party leader yesterday pledging to keep the 19% basic rate but reinstate 45% top rate of income tax.

Rachel Reeves

Stamp duty could also see further changes if Rachel Reeves’ comments after last Fridays mini-Budget announcement are anything to go by.

Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor of the exchequer, said: “It’s going to take much more than a stamp duty cut to get our economy back on track and home ownership back to the levels last seen under the Labour government.

“These stamp duty changes have been tried before.

“Last time they did it, a third of the people who benefited were buying a second or third home, or a buy to let property.

“Is that really the best use of taxpayers money when borrowing and debt are already so high?

“And can the Chancellor confirm how much of his stamp duty cut will go to those purchasing multiple properties?

“Instead of a stamp duty rates going up and down like a yo-yo, we’ve got to get building.

“We need to target support at first time buyers and tackle the issue of homes being sold to overseas investors.”

 

EYE NEWSFLASH: Stamp duty cut to save homebuyers thousands of pounds – full details announced

 

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6 Comments

  1. jeremy1960

    I suspect that this survey was undertaken before the clowns truss and kamikaze revealed their plans to financially cripple the country?

    Within a few days they have ruined any credibility remaining in the Conservative Party, trashed the pound, upset most of the country and handed kneel starmer and the liebor party the next election on a plate! Unbelievable!

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    1. Not Surprised

      There’s a few things wrong with your reply Jeremy.

      1. The polling is recent, so the current Tory sh*t show IS taken into account it would seem.

      2. I’m not sure there was any ever credibity in the CONservatives

      3. You’ve spelled Labour incorrectly.

      Here’s to a new Government soon 🙂

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  2. Seeing_the_Positive03

    Erm….no…it’s referring to the stamp duty cut, so its after revealing their plans.  We don’t have crystal balls and certainly you don’t either. We were the highest taxing nation in the G7 and going into a recession with high taxes and a lack of investment into this country is lethal.  Yes we’re gambling on gaining growth but the other route looked bleak too and, in my opinion, more bleak.  We need investment and to be attractive to top talent.  Best to stay optimisitic!

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  3. PaulC

    I have voted conservative every election of my adult life.

    I am a business owner, a landlord and I have on occasion been in the now defunct top tax band..

    I think the chances of Conservatives getting in at the next election are zero. In fact the party will be lucky to get into power for a few terms.

    The actions on Friday show how out of touch this new Truss government is.

    Any benefit from the tax cuts were wiped out by the close on Friday with the pound falling against the dollar.

    And if the pound falls dramatically further  the BOE will act to protect the pound.

    With higher interest rates the borrowing costs will balloon.

    The housing market will collapse.

    And if they are not careful we will be going cap in hand to the IMF

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  4. Robert_May

    Deliberately not winning the next election, leaving the Conservatives to clear up the mess they’ve engineered would seem like and opportunity  Labour should not discount.

    I appreciate ego and political ambition will prevent anyone contemplating such an idea but at some point someone has to  break the cycle that one party gives and the other takes.

    This is your mess, you engineered it, you profited from it, you own it, you clear it up, you figure out a way of putting things right.

     

     

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  5. Agent75

    Instead of rushing to your keyboards to damn the new Chancellors plans, based on a days trading, why don’t you be a little more grown-up and wait a while before deciding we’re headed for Financial Armageddon?! I notice the £ has bounced back and is trading at $1.08 as of 08:38 on the 27th. Lets see where we’re at in a week’s time shall we?

    People on this site are very quick to call out Ms Truss and her new Chancellor as stupid – I’ve not met many stupid people who have a First and a PhD from Cambridge, and went to Harvard…but I have met many cranially challenged estate agents who, through a mixture of blind luck and low animal cunning, have assailed some dizzy (local!) heights…

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