Number of house sales now dropping, says taxman

There were 97,450 property transactions across the UK in September, HMRC has reported.

The figure was down by 4.8% from 102,360 transactions in August – tallying with the drop in September’s mortgage lending that Eye reported yesterday.

However, the figure is up 5% on the transactions reported by HMRC in September last year.

The statistics for August and September are both “provisional” and “seasonally adjusted” and are subject to revision.

However, HMRC’s non seasonally adjusted (ie, “actual”) figure shows a sharper monthly fall. In August, HMRC reported 116,290 transactions, falling to 99,690 in September.

The love affair with seasonal adjustment makes for very difficult interpretation.

HMRC’s seasonally adjusted figures for transactions show them peaking in February and then declining since, with a mild uplift in August.

However, the non seasonally adjusted figures show transactions rising from a low (as opposed to a high) in February month by month, peaking in August, and then falling.

Perhaps the most salient point is that on a measure of both seasonally adjusted, and non adjusted, there does seem to have been a monthly fall.

Make of it what you will. The figures are here

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