House prices increased ‘substantially’ when many felt they were ‘stagnant’

Average house prices in Scotland have risen by 50% over the last decade, led by gains in Glasgow, new data shows.

The gap between Scotland’s two largest cities and the rest of the country is expanding with both Edinburgh and Glasgow soaring ahead of the rest of the country with increases of £129,054 and £69,538, respectively. Inflation over the same period was 29.8% showing a real terms increase in price of between 20.2% for Scotland as a whole to 41.8% in Glasgow.

Within different property types there has been an enormous range of increase in values with detached homes substantially outperforming the rest of the market. Across Scotland the average price of a detached home increased by 55.4% but in Edinburgh and Glasgow the increase over the last decade was 93.1% and 101.2% respectively.

Flats have underperformed the whole market increasing by an average of 44.1% (below the 50% for all property) but in both Edinburgh and Glasgow prices are higher with increases of 58.4% and 62.9% respectively.

David Alexander, chief executive of DJ Alexander Ltd, which provided the data, commented: “These figures highlight just how much average property prices have increased over the last decade. A rise of 50% when inflation is at under 30% means that real term values have increased substantially at a time when many felt that property prices were fairly stagnant.”

“Indeed, a lot of this growth has occurred since the start of the pandemic, so we have experienced a period of fairly stable increases over seven years followed by an enormous rise in prices since February 2020. It is these increases which are now stabilising and falling back while the long-term price growth remains strong.”

He continued: “But the real winners are in certain geographic parts of Scotland and among some property types. Detached houses are now selling for pretty much double their February 2013 value in Edinburgh and Glasgow while across the rest of Scotland their rise has been broadly in line with overall values.

“When you look at the average price of flats once again our two biggest cities are quite a bit ahead of the average increasing in Glasgow by 62.9% and in Edinburgh by 58.4% against a Scotland-wide figure of 44.1%.”

Alexander added: “We can see from these numbers that many parts of Scotland are thriving, and that home ownership remains a positive aspiration. But there may be rising concern that our two largest cities are becoming much more expensive than other parts of the country and prices are accelerating at a rate that may make them quite unaffordable for people to buy if this level of growth continues for another decade. In particular, the average price of a detached home in the capital is now £418,000 more than for the rest of Scotland. This is surely a gap that is, or will become, insurmountable for anyone to buy into if it continues to rise at this pace. We have a broadly healthy property market but one that is perhaps now becoming divided by location more than at any time in the past.”

 

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