New data from the Land Registry lays bare the extent to which the housing market across England and Wales was already suffering before the Brexit vote.
The data relates to the second quarter of this year and shows a dramatic fall in sales volumes.
In England and Wales, 115,895 sales were registered.
These were down 30% on the first quarter and represented the lowest quarterly level of sales on record.
The Land Registry has been recording sales since 1996.
Pre-credit crunch, the average sales volumes per quarter was 245,173.
In Greater London, 15,412 sales were registered in the second quarter of this year, a fall of 44.5% from quarter one figures.
The data – not to be confused with the monthly Land Registry House Price Index – also shows house price falls.
In England and Wales, house prices fell 4.45% in the second three months of this year, compared with the first quarter, to stand at £268,713.
In Greater London, the fall was 7%, to £558,082.
According to Naomi Heaton, of investment company London Central Portfolio, all parts of the housing market were adversely affected in Q2 of this year, the only exception being prime central London’s private rented sector.
Heaton said the new data was “very alarming” and she expected the market to “slow further across the rest of this year” – although yesterday, HMRC reported 109,630 residential transactions in August.
This was the second highest figure of the year, beaten only by March’s 171,370.
The August number is almost identical to the 109,480 transactions recorded by HMRC in August last year.
We have quoted the ‘actual’ figures, not the seasonally adjusted ones, which shave off around 12,000 transactions to give the August figure of 97,660.
Comments (5)
Stamp Duty deadline. Loads of business first quarter of the year. Stretching the rest of the natural course of business over these next 3 quarters.
We have an aging population, oldies don’t like to put their house on the market until they have found somewhere to buy.
People wont put their house on the market if they cant find much to buy in their price range.
it’s a self propelling circle.
We know it’s nothing to do with Brexit, we know it’s not high interest rates, we know there is a huge housing shortage.
The engine for the property market is London and the South East, if sellers there are not actively selling it has a natural knock on effect.
As far as I can tell we can expect a flat market for a few years.
August’s completions are likely to be from properties sold in March/April/May. In my home town there are far less properties for sale than there would normally be at this time of year. Potential vendors are looking at what they might like to buy, before committing to sell …and there’s nothing left. This scarcity of stock is getting worse and becoming self fulfilling. Trouble is many stats are three or four months behind the reality on the ground. Are any other agents experiencing the same?
Certainly true for the first half of the year. Very low supply, high prices achieved, high number aborted when sellers couldn’t find. There’s a feeling there’s more on the market now, but I suspect the reality is they’re just taking longer to sell and the gap between asking price and reality more sensitive. Still staggered by some of the list prices I’m seeing with the corporate folks trying to keep their masters at bay.
I went out to value a property a month after Brexit. They had bought it as a new build at the previous height of the market in 2007. I took the ‘new build premium’ off, added the general market movement since then and added on 15% for the local hot market. Satisfied this was comparable with other recent property sales I offered my suggestion of marketing price of ‘offers over £300,000’. The owners agreed that it was what they had thought…..but then went on to say the other two agents had suggested a marketing price of £400,0000!!!
As I left I wished them luck in their sale, as I thought I had somehow cocked it up completely. They said they weren’t in a hurry to go to market (things to sort out first) but promised they would come back to me….because of everything I had taken the time and trouble to explain to them!