Property sales set to slide by up to 45% due to coronavirus crunch

The coronavirus pandemic could result in UK transactions being up to 45% lower across this year, Savills predicts.

The agent is warning sales will be most impacted over the next three months with the nation on lockdown.

The research highlights that sales fell close to zero in China in the three weeks after it imposed movement restrictions and have recovered by 50% of the four-year average in the two months since.

In the UK, Savills predicts impediments on property market activities such as agency and conveyancing work as well as a drop in consumer confidence would result in between 566,000 and 745,000 transactions during 2020, this is between 27% and 45% lower than the 1.02m sales that it forecasted for the year.

However, the agent says there will be a build-up of demand for next year due to suppressed transaction activity, which could mean sales of between 1.12m and 1.16m during 2021.

The analysis claims there will be less pressure on prices due to the low level of transactions and predicts price central London will lead the post pandemic recovery due to many of the sales taking place in cash.

Lucian Cook, director of residential research for Savills, said: “The UK Government has responded with extensive support for the economy and businesses, including liquidity injections, grants and low-cost loans for the most exposed sectors of the economy and encouraging lenders to take a benevolent approach to those struggling with mortgage payments.

“This should help reduce some of the pandemic’s impact, enable a swift economic recovery and limit the number of households forced to sell.”

Meanwhile, Knight Frank has been monitoring the residential market in China since it lifted its own restrictions following the coronavirus outbreak after the number of new cases dropped.

It cited data from Capital Economics showing 39,455 sales transacted across 30 major Chinese cities in the first 17 days of March compared with 4,578 over the same period in February.

Knight Frank said:  “Assuming that the country does not suffer from a second spike, China has much to show other countries around the world what a recovery from coronavirus could look like.

“Certainly, the desire to get back to work and the pickup in activity are positive signs that recovery could be quick.

“However, China has reemerged just as the rest of the world is going under, and the interconnectedness of China into the global economy means that while the recovery is underway, the country will continue to feel the impact of the pandemic during the coming months.”

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3 Comments

  1. Property Pundit

    Wet your finger, stick it in the air, record the results. Then write something like the above.

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  2. SoldPal90

    I’ll have a got at that finger in the air mullarkey –

    2 months no transactions  – then time building up the pipeline, up to 6-8 weeks – no decent sales income for minimum of 4 months.

    Add to that the sudden and stark realisation that people were ill prepared financially with insufficient funds put aside to act as a safety net; along with a new cautionary approach to spending ‘willy nilly.

    Some good will come out of this but the new normal wont include buying loads of ‘stuff’  that’s not needed and paying over inflated prices for shelter.

    Downsizing will be ever more popular I expect.

     

     

     

     

     

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  3. GPL

     
    I note The Victor Meldrew Institute headline to their Article
     
    “ ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE “
     
     
    …….and GPL quoted as follows
     
    “ With Adversity comes Opportunity “
     
     

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