The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has released its central forecast for the UK housing market, projecting a nuanced trajectory for house prices in the coming years.
According to the OBR, residential property prices are expected to increase marginally by 0.9% in 2023 but then face a significant downturn, decreasing by 4.7% in 2024.
This decline is anticipated to bring the price of the average UK home to a low of approximately £266,000 in Q4 2024.
The OBR’s forecast outlines an overall decrease in nominal house prices by 7.6% from their peak in the fourth quarter of 2022 to their lowest point in the final quarter of 2024, the OBR says.
This fall is 2.4% less than the OBR previously anticipated in March 2023.
???? it would be interesting, seriously interesting to hear how someone came up with that number, to explain it in detail
the last time to UK market was normal the Land registry HPI was £230,000, in the 55 months between then and Q4 2024 HPI will most likely increase to about £312,000. (based on what’s happened since 1995) I cannot fathom how anyone looking at the same base data has come up with £266,000.
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the maths is all over the shop, (their numbers) £295,000 less 7.6% of £295,000 isn’t £266,000
291,000 x 1.009 less 4.7% of that isn’t £266,000 either.
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The OBR predictions have never been anywhere near reality , what a waste of time and effort on their part. I’m sure they’re far more intelligent than me, however if you don’t consult those with boots on the ground; reading the mood of the market in real time, then you really are whistling in the wind.
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I find it strange as well how the ONS stats report a 0.1% annual drop in house prices yet Nationwide (and other HPIs) report 4.5% drop.
The 4.5% drop feels a lot more realistic in my opinion.
Interested to know what others think?
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Absolutely ZERO chance of a price drop or crash, as the Tories have just added another 672,000 to the UK population in 2023, in addition to the 745,000 from the previous year and this will keep their property building donor class happy 🙂
theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/23/net-migration-to-uk-hit-record-745000-in-2022-revised-figures-show
As long as people need housing and we don’t move ‘en masse’ to camping, then demand will outstrip supply for decades to come with another generation will be failed. Good luck to any youngsters wanting to rent or buy a home, yet, nothing to do with immigration say Shelter, Generation Rent, Price Out Et al….
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