House prices could fall by a third if there is a no deal Brexit, warns Bank of England

The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that in the event of a no deal Brexit, property prices could plummet by a third.

Mark Carney told the Today programme on Friday that the Bank of England had run recent stress tests in the scenario of a no deal Brexit.

As well as house price falls, interest rates would rise to 4% and unemployment would go up to 4% in a full-scale recession.

Asked whether a no deal Brexit would be a disaster, Carney said it would be very undesirable.

His warning led to a fall in the value of the pound.

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24 Comments

  1. Chris Wood

    What utter tosh. With employment at its highest for decades and far higher than in the EU, (even if it rose to the dizzying heights of 4%) why would the market crash by a third?!

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    1. NewsBoy

      Sorry Chris but there is a great deal of logic in the thought of a severe price crash.This market has not had a correction for over 10 years and is due one. The property market hates uncertainty and I cannot think of any period of greater uncertainty than that which we will go though next Spring.¬†Brexiteers, apparently, won’t mind as the end result of “independence” will be worth it.

      I cannot think of any other time, even miners strikes, war, 9/11, double MIRAS, bank crises, or 3 day weeks which could possibly have caused so much concern.

      We are going to be very deep in the dark brown stuff and, quite possibly, heading for a very, very nasty 2019, 2020 and 2021. This is of course not certain by any means but it is a very serious risk and not one I’m prepared to ignore.

      It is time to be very, very cautious and very careful about investing well earned cash into any optimistic ventures. Just remember how positive we all felt in 1988 as prices went through the roof and everyone as “upwardly mobile”, only to receive the very nasty kick in the nether regions from August 88 all the way through to January 95. I remember the pain only too well.

      It might not happen but……….

      Happy Monday!

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      1. Bless You

        Amazing that house prices keep needing to be corrected… who is responsible for allowing housing market to be any better then 2% a year any way…oh yeah …Mark Carney. Good job mark.

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    2. P-Daddy

      I heard the interview…it was way more informative than this snap shot and his comments were fair when taken in context. Our GDP growth was amongst the highest in the world pre referendum, now its the lowest. But his final comments about the outcome being undesirable were then picked up on by Liam Fox at the weekend. The EU don’t want us to leave, so they have 2 agendas one of which if we force their hand, they can negotiate the best deals for themselves. It’s like all divorces…if you force it, you end up losing out in some way or other…and lets face it, our new mistress the WTO and its rules are looking decidedly dodgy at the moment ūüôā This could get uncomfortable, but everyone will end up losing out if there is intransigence!

      Anyone interested in signing up to the Theresa May school of negotiations…she plans to have a new career on 1st April 2019!

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  2. 70GJ

    Didn’t he predict all this just before the referendum? Project Fear.

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  3. Mark Connelly

    Remember what was going to happen if we didn’t join the euro. Remember what was going to happen if we voted Brexit. Tiresome.

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  4. Property Pundit

    This guy has ZERO credibility.

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    1. Property Pundit

      Thanks for the thumbs down Dom & John, care to tell me where I’m wrong with my assertion?

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  5. Robert May

    This is the guy who was going to “raise interest rates when unemployment drops below 7%”¬†¬† It’s been below 7% for 4 years it’s now 4.2%

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  6. Property Paddy

    Actually I heard the interview, what Mr Carney said was the bank of England stress tested the high street banks liquidity with scenarios including 30% drop in house prices and 7% interest rates and various other aspects.  At no point did he predict a 30% drop in house prices.  He did say a No deal brexit is highly undesirable and that is a pretty straight forward un threatening remark.

    This is not a¬†real bit of news and shouldn’t be seen on EYE.

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  7. Richard Copus

    At last one benefit from Brexit¬† –¬† affordable housing!

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  8. Jacqueline Emmerson

    I have not trusted his predictions since he forecast immediate financial Armageddon if we voted Leave. He should be like the Queen and keep his views to himself.

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  9. Freepost143

    He couldn’t predict what he’s going to have for tea…………..

     

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  10. CountryLass

    Oh how I wish that some of those who voted Leave could have seen this coming…

    I’m fairly open that I voted Remain. Although I was tempted by less interference from Brussels, restricted immigration, and the chance to be our own Country again, as well as had the theory that there was a lot of the world we could still trade with, I still did my research.

    We would still have had to take a certain amount of immigrants under something that we signed before the EU. They would have the power to stop countries trading with us, and if it all went south, we do not have the space or the capacity to be self-sufficient.

    All in all, it was too big a risk. And although if we threatened to leave, then stayed we would potentially look weak, like a parent that tells a child again and again that they will take that toy off them if they do it again, I mean it! I will! Next time I will! I also took the view that we could stay, and change our mind in the future, but leaving then trying to get back in? Hello whipping boy!

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    1. Property Pundit

      Oh how I wish that some of those who voted Leave could have seen this coming…
      What, all this Project Fear MkII nonsense?

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      1. CountryLass

        No, the issues with trying to negotiate a Brexit deal, the real possibility that we will leave without one and Brussels will ban anyone trading with us. I saw a report the other day that said at one point last winter¬†130 trucks a day came through with fruit from the EU. Most of that would be citrus fruits that we can’t grow here. Where do you think that will come from if we can’t buy from Europe? And even supposing we can get enough to cover the approximately 40% of the food we import, how much are we going to have to pay for it?

         

        As I said, I liked the idea of getting rid of some of the bureaucratic¬†nonsense, but unless we can have a free trade deal, I think it’s too much of a risk.

        Unless the c£350m a week the Leave campaigners promised the NHS from the EU budget could be used to subsidise food?

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    2. NewsBoy

      That looks like a good measured view. Be careful, peopled don’t like that at all!

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      1. CountryLass

        Thanks! Yeah, I should have remembered that the Internet is the new home of the Troll! Do we know how much they all sold their places under the bridge for?
         
        And I’m not saying that anyone who disagrees with me is a troll before people get their knickers in a twist!

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        1. Property Pundit

          And I‚Äôm not saying that anyone who disagrees with me is a troll’

          The irony is this is EXACTLY what you’re saying.

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          1. CountryLass

            *sigh* yes dear. That is right. I wasn’t at all meaning that the internet houses those who will argue that up is down, just for the ‘fun’ of it.

            Off you go now, try not to eat the crayons…

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            1. Property Pundit

              try not to eat the crayons…

              Nice mature come back. Really hope you don’t struggle to get the lemons for your G&Ts.

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              1. CountryLass

                Don’t like gin, I’m more of a rum or rose girl.

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  11. chrisdaniel

    Carney should be sacked, devaluing our currency with  his spurious predictions.

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    1. NewsBoy

      Facts are never nice to read but let’s see everyone’s comments in March. Itr may be that everyone will blaim the naysayers and suggest it is all their fault for being so negative!!
      Nothing will devalue the currency like a Brexit!

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