House price growth will last well into 2022 as lifestyle changes sparked by the coronavirus crisis sees buyers continue to look for more room, says Keller Williams UK.
A search for space has pushed up the average price of a residential property by 7.1% over the past year, according to Halifax.
The estate agency expects to see further house price growth in the short- to medium-term as properties of all kinds are in short supply.
Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, commented: “The stamp duty holiday has spurred an incredible run of upward house price growth and despite many predicting a market slump, we’re yet to see any let up.
“Season trends suggest this could be the case for the rest of this year and much of next as the market tends to perform at its best during the autumn, winter and spring seasons.”
Keller Williams has analysed how the four seasons impact house prices and market demand over the past 36 months, a project that reveals prices are very unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.
This is because, by splitting the calendar year into seasons, it is clear that the UK housing market follows a predictable cycle.
The average house price in autumn – September, October, November – over the past three years has sat at £240,000. Always a busy time of year, which the agency says goes a long way to explain why prices and demand are still so high today.
As the year moves into winter – December, January, February – the average house price climbs even further. Over the past 36 months, the average house price in winter has been £243,998.
Moving into Spring – March, April, May – prices rise again to an average of £245,000.
It is only with the arrival of summer that prices start to decline. Over the past three years, the average house price in the summer season has sat at £237,980, the lowest price for the whole year.
So the data suggests that having already seen a summer of hot house price growth, we should now see property values continue on their upward trend until summer 2022, at the very least.
Taylor added: “For buyers, this is difficult news to stomach, especially those who are hoping to move sooner rather than later. But it will no doubt be welcomed by sellers who should continue to secure a very good price when entering the market.”
| Table shows seasonal average house prices and transactions from the past 36 months (June 2018 – May 2021) | ||
| Season | Average transactions | Average (median) price |
| Summer | 232,302 | £237,980 |
| Autumn | 246,694 | £240,000 |
| Winter | 217,232 | £243,998 |
| Spring | 160,287 | £245,000 |
| Source | HMLR – Price Paid | |
…… project that reveals prices are very unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.
I predict they will not do anything of the sort. If anything they will continue to grow and should the media get wind of prices and shortages and start to make it clear to the public ….. ‘Boom’ is more likely. I see so many people waiting, waiting for these prediction of price drops and now saying going to jump in sooner than later, as it is not happening.
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Open question to EYE:
What is it with these new breed of “articles”? People who should surely know better seen to be spouting supposedly sage words to add to column inches of bull$h!ttery cobbled around out of-date, skewed, or completely unfit-for-purpose “statistics”.
In this latest example, the KW head honcho is apparently putting his name to comments – yet his vast experience doesn’t seem to tell him that the very nature of the housebuying process makes the statistical content at least a complete season outdated. For example, where it is stated
“The average house price in autumn – September, October, November – over the past three years has sat at £240,000”
this related to COMPLETED TRANSACTIONS in those three months – that would have been sold (ie price agreed), in the main, three or four months earlier.
That would be the SUMMER average house price, then…
And as for using the last three years of data for the content – REALLY? Anything from March 2020 should be regarded as ‘extraordinary’ in real market terms. Is there a single Agent in the UK looking at 2020 and 2021 as anything other than uncharted waters (and hoped never to have to navigate again)? Three months of what was essentially a frozen market, then an uncontrolled opening of floodgates which is still catching up over twelve months later – hardly “normal” – and therefore totally unreliable datasets for comparison vs. previous, and which will I have little doubt be regarded in hindsight when consigned to the history books as just another of those unfortunate ‘blips’ that the housing market is prone to suffering.
It’s a pity that all of the ‘statisticians’, ‘analysts’ and ‘researchers’ behind all the articles (assuming that it is a number of them all making the same schoolboy errors and not just one numpty consistently banging out woefully flawed datasets for a number of companies…) don’t apply an ounce of common sense or just plain simple thought process to the real meaning of the data – and it’s quite embarrassing that CEOs, Directors and the like are queueing up, apparently happy to put their names to blatent inaccuracies, just to get their name in print.
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I’m going to hold your hand on this one.
EYE was in ‘Fraue Renshaw’ (credit to you) time very informative journalism with an interesting and educational mix of articles where one would learn something that would be of value to many readers. Many would contribute useful tips and information into the equations, with the odd banter (Aka Jonny) when nonsense poked its head up.
Now many articles seem to be PR and adverts for individuals and companies. Just about all of them follow the social media doctrine of ‘personal views’ that belong in the toilet with the resulting back and forth bigotry and often absolute hogwash that doesn’t drive our industry forward, informative to the point it makes change or people can learn from with worth.
Seems a free hand (advert) is being used to fill editorial space. Allowing the message to come from their self indulgent perspective. Shouldn’t EYE stories be re-written with investigative journalism of a reporter?
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