A search for space has pushed up the average price of a residential property by 7.1% over the past year, according to Halifax.
The estate agency expects to see further house price growth in the short- to medium-term as properties of all kinds are in short supply.
Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, commented: “The stamp duty holiday has spurred an incredible run of upward house price growth and despite many predicting a market slump, we’re yet to see any let up.
“Season trends suggest this could be the case for the rest of this year and much of next as the market tends to perform at its best during the autumn, winter and spring seasons.”
Keller Williams has analysed how the four seasons impact house prices and market demand over the past 36 months, a project that reveals prices are very unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.
This is because, by splitting the calendar year into seasons, it is clear that the UK housing market follows a predictable cycle.
The average house price in autumn – September, October, November – over the past three years has sat at £240,000. Always a busy time of year, which the agency says goes a long way to explain why prices and demand are still so high today.
As the year moves into winter – December, January, February – the average house price climbs even further. Over the past 36 months, the average house price in winter has been £243,998.
Moving into Spring – March, April, May – prices rise again to an average of £245,000.
It is only with the arrival of summer that prices start to decline. Over the past three years, the average house price in the summer season has sat at £237,980, the lowest price for the whole year.
So the data suggests that having already seen a summer of hot house price growth, we should now see property values continue on their upward trend until summer 2022, at the very least.
Taylor added: “For buyers, this is difficult news to stomach, especially those who are hoping to move sooner rather than later. But it will no doubt be welcomed by sellers who should continue to secure a very good price when entering the market.”
|Table shows seasonal average house prices and transactions from the past 36 months (June 2018 – May 2021)
|Average (median) price
|HMLR – Price Paid