Another house price forecast: UK prices to rise in 2022

The long period of double-digit year on year price increases we have seen over most of 2021 is now over, but the market remains active as demand continues to outweigh supply.

Marginal monthly price falls of 0.1% and 1.1% in November and December respectfully look set to be wiped out by a 2.5% increase in January, based on deals already agreed between buyers and sellers, the latest property price prediction suggests.

Annual growth of 2.3% in January 2022 is anticipated taking the average completed sale price to £342,836, according to the newly released Reallymoving House Price Forecast, based on analysis of more than 18,000 conveyancing quote forms completed over the last three months.

Reallymoving captures the purchase price buyers have agreed to pay when they search for conveyancing quotes through the comparison site, typically 12 weeks before they complete, enabling it to provide a three-month residential property price forecast that historically has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively.

The shortage of stock as reported by agents has supported values as the market adjusted to the end of all stamp duty incentives, alongside reassurances from the Bank of England that rate rises, if and when they do begin, will be moderate and steady.

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments: “Transaction volumes are unsurprisingly down since the end of the stamp duty holiday but the outlook for the housing market in early 2022 is positive. The most intense phase of the post-pandemic boom has now subsided bringing about a brief autumn lull, but the fundamental supply and demand imbalance continues to support prices and, while the threat of interest rate rises will give some buyers pause for thought, thanks to stress-testing by lenders most homeowners will be able to absorb small rate rises over an extended period of time without too much trouble.

“House price inflation for first-time buyers has been lower than for upsizers and downsizers, meaning first-time buyer activity levels are reassuringly high at around 54% of all buyers – an encouraging sign of market health. An anticipated surge in new listings in the new year will drive activity, boost transaction levels and help existing sellers to complete chains.”

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