Demographic trends point to ‘imminent property sales surge’

Large rises of people in their 30s and over 60 could trigger increased property sales once the economy adjusts to the latest budget forecasts, according to Worcestershire estate agents Nicol & Co.

Matt Nicol, managing director of Nicol & Co, said demographic trends found in the 2021 Census for England and Wales show that in the decade to 2021, the population of 30-somethings in England and Wales had grown by more than 700,000, while the number of people aged over-60 grew by almost two million.

“Given the average age of a first-time buyer is just under 34 years old, that’s a substantial number of people who might be ready to buy their first home,” he said.

“Meanwhile, there’s been a sizeable increase in the cohort of people who might be contemplating downsizing, or a significant lifestyle change.

“Coupled with this is recent analysis of the average asking price of properties coming to the market since the beginning of this year, which indicates that larger properties are becoming available.

Nicol believes this is happening because there are more asset-rich but cash-poor property owners who have been putting off downsizing until it becomes essential.

“Their pension income is probably being swallowed up by ever increasing costs, and so for many it will increasingly make sense to consider a smaller house that’s easier to manage, less costly to heat and better spaced for empty-nesters,” he said.

Nicol believes that the demographic changes could start making a real impact later this year, now the Bank of England is signalling the potential for lower inflation which, eventually, will mean lower interest rates.

He said: “What we’re talking about here are emerging generational wealth trends where older people want to help younger family members to buy their own house.

“For many parents and grandparents, downsizing could not only save them money, but could also free up some equity to support their children and grandchildren who are now in their 30-somethings and keen to get on the housing ladder.

“These trends take a while to prove and are, of course, dependent on wider economic circumstances, but I believe more downsizing coupled with having more over-30s in the market could soon make a real difference,” Nicol added.

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