The huge rise in the number of estate agencies now operating in the UK, at a time of great uncertainty in the housing market, is simply unsustainable – so job losses, branch closures and company amalgamations are on the cards for many.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of estate agency ‘shops’ has risen to 25,485, up 15.7% since 2010.

At the same time, there was a 29.25% reduction year on year in transactions (to June) in the UK and a 32.2% reduction in England alone.

Meanwhile, new-build starts have plummeted, builders are facing uncertainty, there’s not enough stock in the housing market, the population is growing: the demand is there but there’s insufficient supply – though let’s hope the Government’s recent announcements over this will give the construction sector a welcome boost sooner rather than later, with further good news in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement.

With so many more agents chasing far fewer sales, prospects for the industry are looking bleak.

Just look what’s happening to the share prices of the large corporates. Since the beginning of the year, Foxtons has dropped 48.4% and its market cap is down 49.61% in the same period (to October 19). LSL shares are down 27.97%, while the market cap has dropped 34.54%.

If you want to boost profits, opening new offices is not the answer: market share dominance is. Since 2013, Foxtons has opened 28 branches – yet sales turnover per office dropped by 18.73% by the end of 2015 and 2016 looks even gloomier.

Countrywide has already announced around 60 branch closures in order to cut costs and its shares have lost two-thirds of their value since 2014. There are rumours there could be 60 more.

They are already amalgamating branches (merging Faron Sutaria into John D Wood and there are rumours that some branches of Gascoigne-Pees will become part of Hamptons) and their recent ‘expansion’ of Greene and Co turned out to be a rebranding of two former Bairstow Eves branches. As for their dive into the hybrid online model, I know only too well from my own bitter experience that it’s unsustainable.

Look at the year-on-year losses at Purplebricks, which is continuing to blow all its cash on advertising. Which internet agent is going to crack first and open an office when they realise their model isn’t working?

LSL, which has various ownership models, including franchise, partial ownership, full ownership and stakes in others, has sold off a huge chunk of its shareholding in Zoopla in order to reduce its indebtedness.

Where will we see consolidation in the market? Will we see Connells, owned by Skipton Building Society, taken over by the likes of Countrywide or LSL? Is the Connells/Sequence model of opening more cold-start branches a prudent one or will they pour investment into Hatched?

The reduction in sale volumes, with agents chasing market share, is going to squeeze the middle and “Mr 1% won’t survive”; that means independent agents will be selling up or closing as times get tight.

Those companies which are combining their estate agency and lettings branches under one management team are creating a recipe for disaster, in my opinion.

Overall, I predict we will lose as many as one in five estate agencies once the dust has settled and we are finally out of the EU.

For the first time ever, London is shaping up to be a graveyard for estate agents, though the weak pound could save the capital.

The industry will also lose good commission-based estate agents, who will be unable to support themselves financially and will move away from the industry, which is likely to affect service levels and lead to reputational damage for some agents who can’t find people with the relevant experience.

We have already seen consolidation from the biggest, and the falling volume of sales will mean only one thing – the market, saturated with agents, will become more of an open playing field.

As in any sector, only the strongest will survive.

Tighten your belts too

Just when we are dealing with all the uncertainties from the housing market, we are being clobbered in all directions by rising prices.

Portals, petrol, internet advertising – you name it, virtually everything is going up in price (all except newspapers, which are desperately trying to hold on to our business).

Now we need to contend with a new bit of legislation, the Apprenticeship Levy – which all estate agencies with a pay bill of more than £3m a year will have to pay.

I’m all for apprenticeship schemes in any industry, giving young people a helping hand to get a foot on the career ladder.

But for companies like mine, which already invest heavily in recruitment and training, it is yet another financial burden on our business.

The levy, which is being introduced in April 2017, will be charged at a rate of 0.5% of an employer’s pay bill. Each employer will receive an allowance of £15,000 to offset against their levy payment.

Inevitably, for some estate agents, it will be the final nail in the coffin.