Zoopla backs sales volumes to remain at 1m next year and prices could grow 3%

Sales volumes will remain at 1m during 2020 while house prices will grow 3% on average, according to predictions from Zoopla.

The portal has released forecasts for 2020, claiming the most affordable regional cities will see house price growth of 4%, whereas London will lag with 2%.

Zoopla’s predictions are slightly higher than those made by others in the sector.

In contrast, Savills and JLL are forecasting just a 1% rise, Halifax has gone for 1.3%, the RICS and Knight Frank predict 2% growth, while Strutt & Parker has gone for a more ambitious 4%.

Rightmove has predicted a 2% increase in asking prices.

Zoopla said: “For estate agents, developers and businesses operating in housing, sales volumes are more important than house price growth.

“At a national level, housing sales have drifted lower over the last three years but remain just over 1m a year.

“A 25% drop in sales in London since 2014 has created scarcity and is supporting the increase in price growth. We expect volumes to increase in London while house price rises remain muted. At a national level we expect housing sales to remain at 1m over 2020.”

Zoopla said the election result brings more certainty to households and could release pent-up demand, but warned that affordability remained an issue that could hold back demand and suggested Stamp Duty reform could provide a short-term boost to market activity and prices.

Analysing the UK’s largest 20 cities, Zoopla said London was the least affordable, with average prices at 12.7 times average earnings

Glasgow was ranked the most affordable, where prices are 3.7 times average earnings.

The most affordable cities, with price to earnings ratios of less than six times, are expected to register growth of up to 4% over 2020, led by cities including Glasgow, Belfast and Liverpool, according to Zoopla.

Looking back over the past decade, Zoopla found that house prices increased 54% for the UK’s major cities.

London registered the highest growth over the last decade at 74% while prices were virtually unchanged for Belfast and Aberdeen.

Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Zoopla, said: “In the wake of the election result, much has been made of the likely impact on the housing market and wider economy.

“The election result provides an element of certainty for households looking ahead to 2020, but the result changes very little in terms of housing market fundamentals.

“While we expect some pent-up demand to return to the market in the first quarter of 2020, the affordability of housing across the country will dictate the level to which prices will increase in 2020.

“Lower mortgage rates have already been reflected in higher house prices, which means house prices are set to rise at a lower rate in future – more in line with average earnings.”

City

Current

price

% year

on year
Nov-19

10 year annual average growth rate

Edinburgh

£240,500

5.4%

3.0%

Manchester

£173,400

4.7%

3.7%

Leicester

£180,200

4.5%

4.0%

Birmingham

£167,700

4.1%

3.7%

Nottingham

£157,800

3.9%

3.7%

Liverpool

£121,900

3.8%

1.6%

Leeds

£168,600

3.6%

2.8%

Belfast

£138,000

3.6%

-0.3%

Bristol

£285,600

3.5%

5.3%

Cardiff

£211,100

3.4%

3.3%

Sheffield

£139,400

3.2%

2.4%

Bournemouth

£291,100

3.1%

3.7%

Glasgow

£123,600

3.1%

1.4%

Newcastle

£129,700

2.5%

1.5%

Cambridge

£417,000

2.2%

5.3%

London

£479,000

1.7%

5.7%

Portsmouth

£239,700

1.7%

3.9%

Southampton

£228,000

1.0%

3.6%

Oxford

£411,500

-0.4%

4.6%

Aberdeen

£159,000

-0.7%

-0.1%

20 city index

£257,200

3.4%

4.4%

UK

£220,000

2.8%

3.4%

 

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