House prices ‘could fall 4% this year’ as result of Article 50, claim

Average house prices could fall between 3% and 4% this year as a result of Brexit being triggered.

The claim comes from online agent YOPA which has launched a ‘Brexit House Price Tracker’ that collates industry predictions and compares them to the indices from Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove and the Land Registry.

Predictions have been taken from commentators including buying agent Henry Pryor, who predicts a 2% increase this year, as do Rightmove and Nationwide experts.

The tracker, which will be regularly updated, also uses predictions from Ray Boulger at John Charcol mortgage brokers, who thinks there will be a 1% increase, while Martin Ellis of Halifax has gone for between 1% and 4%.

YOPA has then taken an average of these predictions to predict 1.2% average growth.

However, the agent has pointed out that the Halifax house price index for January showed a 1.1% monthly drop, followed by a 1.1% increase in February, while Nationwide recorded growth of just 0.2% and 0.6% over the same period.

A spokesman for YOPA said: “With Article 50 set to be invoked before the end of this month, many home owners and residents looking to get a foot on the property ladder are keenly watching how Brexit will affect the nation’s house prices.

“Looking at house price data over the past two years, we can see that all the major house price indices are showing a marked slowdown in growth since July 2016 – the month of the Brexit vote.

“It’s also been a rough start for 2017 with Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove all showing a decline in house prices during January.

“In January, experts were predicting that 2017 would see a 1.2% increase in house prices, but using YOPA’s tracker we can see that so far this year house prices have actually declined.

“In fact, if 2017’s house prices continue at their same downward trajectory then we would be looking at a 3%-4% decline for the year.

x

Email the story to a friend

10 Comments

  1. AgentV

    ‘How to regurgitate someone else’s data, add very little, and then create publicity for yourself!’

    Report
  2. PeeBee

    Actually – I reckon they are not only right – but they provide PLENTY of proof of their pudding.

    According to Zoopla, they have a total of 1688 properties on their register at the time of posting this comment.

    380 of them (22.5%) have already been reduced by a sum in excess of 3% of the original listing price.

    281 of them by more than the “3%-4%” decline they predict.  31.8% is their best effort – still way behind the REAL “experts” of online price-drop f*ckwittery (credit: Jonnie)… we all know who they are…

    We also all know the best way to see a fire engine is to start a fire – and all the clever sorts at YOPA have done here is struck a match and drop it into a large neat pile of conveniently available, overpriced kindling…

    Report
    1. Typhoon

      Let’s get real here.That’s not values falling that is the market rejecting agents over priceing.
       
      Let’s stop all this negative predictions cr*p. VIrtually none come true. By the end of this yer it will be impossible to build a new property for less money than can be done today.
      I wonder if all those doom mongers own proeprties of their own? If  they do, every unfounded price drop prediction they utter is emptying their own bank accounts.

      Report
      1. PeeBee

        Typhoon

        “Let’s get real here.That’s not values falling that is the market rejecting agents over priceing.”

        YOU know it. I know it. EVERYONE reading this article knows it.

        Because we know what IS “real”.

        WE deal with “real” every day.

        WE put the ‘r’ in “real”

        Most people will know it, too.

        BUT… for those that don’t – and want to see the fire engine… YOPA and the usual suspects light a match.

        Report
        1. shrewdagent170

          “Then came the business men into Estate Agency and the free valuation was born. Common sense will tell you that nothing is free. ‘Free valuation’ became a pitch to get the property onto the market and an opportunity to sell the services of the Estate Agent. The implications of over valuation, properties standing on the market, a reduction in transaction levels, all stem in part from the ‘free valuation’.”
          The Real Estate Agent and the Great Conspiracy Theory was written to explain your everyday comments to the general public.

          Report
          1. PeeBee

            shrewdagent170

            Your apparent fixation on this work of alleged non-fiction would normally cause some consternation, however as it is plain as day follows night that you were the chap that gave birth to or other bodily function-wise ejected the work from within, you’re just becoming as annoying as Hendry did/is with his thoughts on the market and how to ‘fix’ it.

            That being the case, and I’m addressing the author – I’d just like to ask you a question or two.  Actually – make that a question or three:

            WHY pour scorn on the phrase “free valuation” in the way that you do, when your own company website clearly states

            “Let us offer you a free valuation of your home. With over 30 years of expierence of the local maket we can offer you a valution with integrity.”

            WHY do you call it a “valuation” if, as you say above, it is an instruction-getter? 

            Surely it isn’t – it is an APPRAISAL, is it not?  Or do you confirm every one as Red Book compliant and guarantee the figure (to within ‘accepted’ tolerance)?

            WHY bang on about “The implications of over valuation”, when it appears that 36.4% of the properties you are marketing have had price reductions?

            Pot and kettle spring to mind, Sir…

            Oh – it’s “experience”, by the way.  There’s plenty of typos on your website so that one’s certainly not lonely.

            Maybe you should have got it proof-read like your publisher would no doubt have proof-read the book.

            Report
            1. BobSmeaton01

              Hello PeeBee
               
              “The free valuation is here to stay” is the first line of Chapter 13. I do not mean to pour scorn on it, it was always going to happen but it has had consequences. I recently visited a property only to be told I was the sixth “Valuer” and that previous valuations differed by £140,000 from top to bottom – I was in the middle.
               
              Consequences include the public being far less appreciative of estate agents’ time. With so much competition, and particularly with more unique rural properties, when agents are less sure of value they opt for a high “value” or more likely asking price (you and Typhoon agreed on that). This ultimately results in the above vendor not selling their house in the short term and therefore not becoming a buyer. Locals see their property not selling, blame the market and instead extend or stay put, causing transaction levels to fall. Public respect for the “valuation” has been diminished.
               
              A market appraisal in America is a valuation. The Concise English Dictionary definition of appraise is “to set a price on, to value, to evaluate the worth of”. I accept in the UK it has perhaps become to mean a general overview of the situation and agents do not necessarily always value, but is not that part of the problem? Agents are not properly controlling a vendor’s expectations, instead, often giving them false ones.
               
              For me, when I go to see a prospective purchase there are two steps:
               
              The Valuation
              This figure/band needs to be accurate and achievable within a reasonable timescale – it is a figure at which there is a depth of market so that if something does go wrong you can achieve it again, it is within general affordability – there may well be provisos, a second market from occasional purchasers from out of the area who can afford more. People make decisions regarding their future on this advice.
               
              I expect to spend 15-30 minutes prepping and looking at comparable evidence, including property sizes, and 10-25 minutes working out the valuation before reporting back to the owners. As much effort goes into arriving at the valuation band for sale as any Red Book valuation, and yes within reasonable tolerance the figures I give my clients I expect will happen, not may happen.
               
               
              The Discussion
              This covers how and where the property should be marketed, asking price, our general philosophy and what the client requires from their sale among other factors.
               
              We are generally on a falling market in our area. Rightmove stats show that we sold the most properties for the first three months of this year in the CA13 postcode area with approximately half the available stock of some of our main competitors.
               
              Ultimately though, we present our valuation and then advise our clients on the best course of action for what they are trying to achieve. The final decision on asking price is their own decision.

              Report
      2. PeeBee

        Can’t quite figure out the ‘Dislikes’ here for Typhoon’s post – anyone got a Scooby as to why?

        He/she’s actually pretty much on the money…

        Report
  3. PeeBee

    Typhoon

    “By the end of this yer it will be impossible to build a new property for less money than can be done today.”

    Absolutely. As sure as sticks are sticks.

    HOWEVER, mon ami, that fact doesn’t mean that it cannot be sold for less money at the end of the year than can be achieved today…

    Report
  4. Property Pundit

    Attention seeking PR bunkum. About as relevant as zoopla’s twitter chart.

    Report
X

You must be logged in to report this comment!

Comments are closed.

More top news stories

Fresh data ‘suggests no improvement in Purplebricks’ market share’, says UBS

Continue Reading ...

The government pledges to ‘support first-time buyers and the housing market’

Continue Reading ...

Thank you for signing up to our newsletter, we have sent you an email asking you to confirm your subscription. Additionally if you would like to create a free EYE account which allows you to comment on news stories and manage your email subscriptions please enter a password below.