This is the first ‘UK Property Market Stats Show’ of 2025. It reflects on the week ending Sunday, 12th January 2025.
I am joined by this week’s special guest, Ben Madden, an estate agent from West London to discuss the property market headlines for Week 1 of 2025.
It must be stressed this is the first week of the year, and because the first full week started later than other years (on the 6th January 2025), some of the figures, when compared to previous years, are considerably higher than other years. This will settle down as the rest of January opens out.
The main headlines this week though:
· Listings (New properties coming on to the market) – 27.4k UK listings this week (week 1). 34% higher YTD than 2024 YTD. 35.6% higher YTD than 17/18/19 YTD
· % of Resi Sales Stock being reduced (Monthly): 7.8% of Resi sales stock was reduced in December (this stat is monthly in arrears). 11.1% in November. 11.9% & 2024 average and long term 5 year average 10.6%. NB We always get a dip of this stat in December
· Total Gross Sales – 19.2k UK homes sold stc this week (Week 1). 74% higher than the same standalone week (week 1) in 2024. Also, 11.2% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels.
· Sale Thru rate (Monthly): UK Estate Agents sold 10.61% of their Resi sales stock in Dec ’24 (Dec ’23 – 8.79%). 2024 average is 15.3% & the 7 year long term average is 17.9% per month.
· Sale fall-throughs – Agents lost 3.8% of their sales pipeline for the month of December (2024 average 5.36%). For the week 1, Sale Fall Thrus (as a % of Gross sales Agreed) increased to 33.0% (up from 25.7% from the last two months of 2024). This is normal with a glut of sale fall thrus coming out the Christmas & New Year break. The 7 year Long Term weekly Average is 24.2% and it was 40%+ in the two months following the Truss Budget in the Autumn of 2022.
· Net Sales – 12.9k this week (average for week normally 7.7k). 88.9% higher than the same week 1 in 2024, 99.4% higher YTD in 2024 compared to YTD 17/18/19.
· Resi Sales Stock on the Market (Monthly Stat) : 605k at end of December (down from 677k at end of Nov). For comparison, Dec ’23 – 560k, Dec ’22 – 481k, Dec ’21 – 342k, Dec ’20 – 543k, Dec ’19 – 545k.
· Resi Sales Sold STC Pipeline (Units) (Monthly Stat): 441k at end of December. For comparison, Dec ’23 – 359k, Dec ’22 – 373k, Dec ’21 – 468k, Dec ’20 – 548k, Dec ’19 – 310k.
· UK House Prices – As explained in the show, the £/sqft figure foretells and predicts the Land Registry 5 months in advance with an accuracy rating of 92%. Final December figures saw a slight drift in this important metric to £339/sq.ft. For comparison – Nov’s £342/sq.ft, August’s £334/sq.ft, and Dec ’23 at £322/sq.ft. This means house prices have grown 5.28% in the last 12 months.
Average rents in the UK.
East Anglia: 2024 Average £1,387, Growth since 2016: 29.9%
East Midlands: 2024 Average £1,065, Growth since 2016: 45.5%
Inner London: 2024 Average £3,141, Growth since 2016: 26.0%
North East: 2024 Average £985, Growth since 2016: 29.9%
North West: 2024 Average £1,141, Growth since 2016: 42.1%
Northern Ireland: 2024 Average £927, Growth since 2016: 36.1%
Outer London: 2024 Average £1,943, Growth since 2016: 22.0%
Scotland: 2024 Average £1,116, Growth since 2016: 46.8%
South East: 2024 Average £1,796, Growth since 2016: 40.0%
South West: 2024 Average £1,629, Growth since 2016: 78.4%
Wales: 2024 Average £1,137, Growth since 2016: 50.4%
West Midlands: 2024 Average £1,125, Growth since 2016: 39.2%
Yorkshire & Humberside: 2024 Average £1,058, Growth since 2016: 39.8%
Local Focus this week – Bath
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Gangsta – Ah, the sound of progress being ignored. Don’t worry, mate, some of us are busy commenting, reviewing and shaping the property market to enable us to better serve the homeowners and landlords of the properties we sell and rent, while others are perfecting their keyboard snoring skills. Keep it up – it’s clearly a talent!
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The data supports the diaries which is no real surprise, the volume of listings year on year is an eye opener when compared to previous years. The theory of pent up demand from mini budgets and GE could come to pass.
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ARC, like I said in the third paragraph the first week does start later in 2025 so I would give you a couple of weeks for those numbers to settle down to get a better picture. With regard to Sales we are about three or 4% below what we were in 2024 when I did the show on Tuesday. Again that will take time to settle down because in such a short period of time sat this and Sundays do make a huge difference on the stats. Thank you for your comment.
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Rents going up maybe because of interest rates and Landlords retiring, so Labour now bring out the really big stick to thrash Landlords into submission.
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The metric that has the closest relationship to rents going up or down is wages I have found. You are right MMU, there ware other factors that influence, yet I never found anything as strong as wages as a link to rents growth. Thank you for your comment
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