Unexpected mini-boom gathers momentum – Rightmove

The latest Rightmove House Price Index show the average price of property coming to market in July is £320,265, up by an average of 2.4% (+£7,640) compared to March before the housing market was put on hold.

Last month’s report could only refer to English prices, but there is now sufficient new seller asking price data for Scotland and Wales to restart Rightmove’s national index, and the new all-time high follows on from March’s £312,625 record in the busy market before lockdown.

The price of property coming to market is an accurate early indicator of demand, evidenced by unique buyer enquiries currently being up by 75% so far this month compared to the same period a year ago.

The number of sales being agreed so far this month is also exceeding the prior year’s figures in all three nations.

Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst comments:

“The unexpected mini-boom continues to gather momentum as more nations reopen.

“Overall buyer enquiries are up by an incredible 75% year-on-year in Britain and we expect activity will increase even further as Scotland has not yet been open for a full month, and Wales still has some housing market restrictions in place.

“The busy, until interrupted, spring market has now picked up where it left off and has been accelerated by both time-limited stamp duty holidays and by homeowners reappraising their homes and lifestyles because of the lockdown.

“The strength of buyer demand has contributed to record prices, with the 3.7% annual rate of increase being the highest for over three and a half years.

“These figures are the earliest indicator of house price trends. They show on average prices gently rising not falling, and this will be reflected in the coming months in other house price reports.”

Current activity levels clearly show that Britain is getting moving again, with the number of properties coming to market up by 11.1% this month compared to a year ago despite Scotland and Wales not contributing for the full period, and total available stock recovering to now being just 13% down.

“The market is now in full flow with 40,741 (44%) of the 92,085 newly listed properties in the first month after the English market reopened having already found a buyer, compared to 34% for the equivalent dates last year.

“The stamp duty holidays, which are now expected to run until 31st March in all regions of the UK, are a further incentive to come to market now.

Shipside adds:

“There is a window of opportunity for sellers to come to market and to find a buyer who is tempted by the stamp duty savings.

“Although March next year may sound like a long time away, in reality sellers need to find a buyer before Christmas, to allow a further three months for completion of the legal process to beat the deadline.

“While property is selling much faster than a year ago, it’s important not to over-price and miss this window.

“It’s still a price sensitive market with buyers having limits on what they are able to borrow, and the uncertain economic outlook making them more cautious.”

The immediate effect of the stamp duty cut in England has been to amplify the buyer surge.

The number of sales agreed in the five days after the announcement (between the 8th and 12th July) was up by 35% on the same days a year ago.

This is significantly higher than the 15% increase in sales agreed numbers in England measured in the month of June before the announcement.

Shipside notes:

“While most first-time buyers will not benefit from the stamp duty holiday, as they were already exempt from stamp duty on purchases of up to £300,000, many will benefit from lenders now starting to bring back first-time buyer mortgages for up to 90% of the purchase price.

“Lower-deposit lending helps to boost buyer activity on the all-important first rung of the ladder, which in turn helps to boost the numbers of second-steppers who are able to trade up, and so also enables others higher up the chain to move.”

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3 Comments

  1. Property Pundit

    Translation: The stars are aligning so that we can get back to a 78% profit margin.

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  2. longtimeagent

    History has a habit of repeating itself. In the late 1980’s there had been a sustained boom in prices since 1981. As homes became less affordable friends got together to purchase, as they were each able to claim tax relief on joint mortgages. HMG decided to put a stop to this, but made the grim mistake of allowing a delayed stop – 6 months if I remember correctly. There was frenzied sales activity, right up to the deadline and prices shot up. Immediately after the benefit ended activity completely  fell away. Home prices crashed by 50% over the next half decade. This has a similar disaster scenario  written all over it.  Expect to see the same pattern here with a climax next spring, at the end of the Stamp Duty break.

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    1. Estate Agent W1

      Interesting comment longtimeagent, I was telling clients last week this reminded me of the end of MIRAS relief and the Business Expansion scheme. I agree with your comments, let’s just hope it is not as bad due to much lower interest rates this time.

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