UK house prices ‘will be 10% lower’ by end of 2023

When Savills issued its most recent five-year house price forecast at the tail of last year it stated that the average UK house price would fall by 10% in 2023 when interest rates peak.

The agency said that there would be a growing divergence between cash and equity rich or cash buyers and other groups in their ability to transact this year, and between the mainstream market and prime markets where housing wealth is most concentrated.

Despite a slight drop in borrowing costs in recent weeks, Savills continues to forecast that residential property values in the UK will drop by an average of 10% this year.

Frances McDonald, Savills research analyst, has appeared on Bloomberg TV where she discussed the outlook for the UK property sector with presenters Francine Lacqua and Tom Mackenzie.

McDonald said: “It wasn’t until we started to see interest rates beginning to rise [early last year], and as a result of that, rising inflation, that we started to see house prices fall.

“We saw prices fall by around 2.4% across the UK during the final quarter of 2022, and we are expect that those price falls will continue into this year. We are expecting that prices will be 10% lower by the end of this year.

But McDonald says that it is important to remember that Savills is expecting reginal disparity in property price falls, with London and the South East expected to see prices depreciate “more significantly” than the UK average.

But there is room for optimism when it comes to house price growth in the medium- to longer-term, thanks in part to low unemployment levels, according to McDonald.

By end of the forecast period (2027), Savills expects the average UK house price to reach £381,578, a £22,290 gain over five years. This will put prices a significant £92,000 above the pre-pandemic level.

Table 1: Mainstream market outlook and economic assumptions 2023-2027


2023 forecast

2024 forecast

2025 forecast

2026 forecast

2027 forecast

UK House Price Growth












Rental Growth






GDP growth*












Bank Base Rate*(year-end)






Source: Savills research, *Oxford Economics (Note: These forecasts apply to average prices in the second hand market. New build values may not move at the same rate.)



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  1. Agent75

    Someone ought to put their Guildford guys in touch with Frances…as far as they’re concerned it seems the market went up by 15% over Xmas…!!!

  2. aSalesAgent

    I stopped reading at ‘Savills’, so please forgive me if it is mentioned in the article, but didn’t the same agency forecast a ~15% reduction in house prices following the UK’s lockdown?


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