Shares expert forecasts profits warning from Purplebricks before Christmas

A shares analyst has predicted that Purplebricks could issue a profits warning before Christmas.

G A Chester, writing on investment website Motley Fool, said that Brexit could be damaging for Purplebricks which is high on his list of “stocks to avoid”.

Chester said that Purplebricks lowered its full-year revenue guidance late last year from between £165m and £185m to between £165m and £175m, and then slashed it to £130m to £140m two months later: “So it’s got form for missing expectations.”

Chester said that Purplebricks is now active in the UK and Canada after exiting the US and Australian markets.

In the second half of its last financial year, Purplebricks reported UK revenue of £41.8, down over 13% from the first half.

Its Canadian business posted revenue of £14.5m, which Chester estimates as zero growth.

Together, on an annualised basis, he estimates revenue at £112.6m.

Chester says the current City consensus is that Purplebricks will post revenue of £124.8m.

However, Chester thinks that Purplebricks will struggle to meet this expectation.

He also points to Purplebricks saying in July that current economic and political uncertainty is resulting in challenging market conditions “with volumes continuing to trend downwards”.

This month Rightmove reported that the number of new sellers coming to market is 13.5% down on this time a year ago.

“In these conditions, I really can’t see Purplebricks doing the double-digit growth on last year’s UK/Canada H2 revenue run-rate that it needs to meet market expectations,” says Chester.

The other company he expects to issue a profits warning this side of Christmas is clothing retailer Ted Baker.

UK listed companies issued more profit warnings in the first nine months of 2019 than in any year since 2008. Over one fifth of the profits warnings in quarter three blamed Brexit.

Yesterday, Purplebricks shares closed nearly 2% up at about 115p. A year ago they were 207p.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/alert-2-stocks-think-could-071048531.html

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28 Comments

  1. GPL

    FailingBRICKS, trundles along, burning through millions to acquire customers.

     

    It’s a very expensive game being a “Property Listing Company”.

     

     

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  2. Hillofwad71

    Well unfortunately that has been clear for sometime

    Yet to close down Oz and they have less than  60 properties on the book. so still spilling money over there  .The Canadian Housing market has stalled so life can’t be easy over there  either .

    Instruction levels are well down in H1 FY 20 for the UK  . Looking  like 65k for the  financial year .That must be well below expectations and a country mile below  Hardman’s prediction of 100k .

     

    Vic has not introduced any new revenue streams so all very disappointing

    It was announced yesterday that the grown ups Schroders will be taking over  the mangement of Woodford’s funds

     

    Perhaps they  might decide to sell Woodford’s s remaining stake in Bricks  immediately or hang on to see what plays out .If they decide the former certainly a regime change  looks likely . Exciting times !

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    1. Woodentop

      Woodford jumped ship, saw it coming and no light at the end of the tunnel.

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  3. agent37

    If the whole market is down 13% and PB are down 13% that’s not really a shocker is it? You know it’s bad when every chain check you do, the agent says ‘so how are you finding the market?’

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    1. Hillofwad71

      Agent 37
      Agreed  but it’s incumbent of Bricks to inform their investors of any changes in a timely fashion  The story they have been telling is of King Canute pushing back the tide   

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  4. smile please

    Next advert PB do should have a musical score with it.

    Maybe “The wheels on the bus come off off off”

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  5. downdoobydodowndowndubaduba

    Must be time for another £20 million TV campaign surely?  I haven’t seen them on TV for a while and at least investors can see a nice TV ad and know the money they invested is safe!!

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  6. EAMD172

    I know this is slightly off topic but just relating to a comment in there. Do Rightmove count new instructions as all properties going onto RM even if they are switching from one agent to another or do they count them by postcode/address?

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    1. agent37

      New on RM

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  7. padymagic

    I’m shocked.

     

    I’ve invested every penny I have in PB and now they say they aren’t going to make me millions !!!!!

    Honestly and you say estate agents tell lies?

    What next?  Can’t trust politicians, I’ll bet !

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  8. Knowitall

    They changed fee recently to £999 and customers who have had previous valuations have a month of the old price to instruct. Lpes to get an extra £40 on the instruction fee going forward. 

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    1. PeeBee

      “They changed fee recently to £999…”
       
      BU99ER!! BLINK AND I MISS IT!!  Only checked it last week as I’d heard whispers of it coming!
       
      So – what does that increase equate to?
      * 11% increase on the Fee THIS MONTH.
      * 17.7% lumped onto what people were paying only 2 years ago.
       
      ALL FOR NOTHING EXTRA.
       
      In fact – FOR POTENTIALLY LESS, as there is now LESS CHANCE of selling through them now than previous years – and that’s according to THEIR quoted “sold” statistics:
      * 88% (credit: M Bruce, October 2016)
      * 78% (credit: N Wainwright, February 2018)
      * 77% (credit: TwentyCi – PB Annual Report 2019)
       
      ALL of the above being waaaaaaay above the ‘coin-toss’ figure of 51.6% (credit: Anthony Codling, February 2018) – WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN DISPROVED.
       
      Taking the above into account, stumping up a grand plus extras seems like a proper no-brainer for motivated homesellers… 
       
      …innit?

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  9. Ostrich17

    The Trading Update is due on 7th November.

    If you strip out any residual earnings from US & Oz, then they will be lucky to hit £110m for UK & Canada.

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    1. AgencyInsider

      And how much do you think they will have spent in buying that £110m?

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      1. Ostrich17

        Too much 🙂 – despite the cost-cutting of the new regime.  

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        1. AgencyInsider

          Precisely my thought.

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  10. Woodentop

    Poor “Prophet ‘n Loss”, so much for the colour is purple, which was the only thing he said was right. The colour one goes as you die.  
     
    I said it years ago, actually when they started up, that the business model is flawed and as seen all the other would be on-line only models that knocked the high street, have gone turtle. They cannot self support and one reason why the banks wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole and any child doing school economics would be able to work out. They only survive for as long as investors keep pumping the money in and as a service agent has no control over stock and market conditions, has to be successful with the numbers game. When the market doesn’t like you, you are dead like Australia and US who were not fooled. When the market dives, they have no security unless someone like “Springer’s” come to the rescue but that has a shelf life, as seen by Woodford jumping ship, a very wise move. Its going to get worse for PB despite all their propaganda with reviews, misinformation and limited service ….. you can only fool people for so long and the ones that matter are the available vendors at any given time and over 95% have stayed away from them after how many meggar £m’s spent on TV and radio campaigns!!!!

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    1. Sdaltaf101

      Hi Guys,
       
      The Prophet is back 😉
       
      I predicted PB would leave Australia – Correct
       
      I predicted PB would pull the plug on the US – Correct
       
      I predicted their share price would rocket after 03rd July – Correct, up from £0.93 to £1.15 today (up 24%), whilst peaking at £1.32 in September (up 41%)
       
      I predicted PB would enter the high street with a hub based model – Wait and see
       
      Not bad, three out of four predictions with the fourth on it’s way 🙂
       
       
       
      Lots of love and kisses, and don’t forget to switch your answer machine on before you leave.
       
      The future is bright, the future is Purple.

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      1. Woodentop

        You won’t be smiling when the anti-money laundering investigation is completed and I think everyone is waiting to hear what the litigation PB hinted is forthcoming.

         

        Share price dropped another 2% today and o/a that a loss of 80% going down since 2017

         

        Tax periods ending April:

         

        2015 = Income £.3.39m but £5.44m loss,

         

        2016 = Income £18.6m but £11.9m loss

         

        2017 = Income £46.71m but £6.06m loss

         

        2018 = Income £93.70 but £26.18m loss

         

        2019 = Income £136.51m but £52.42m loss

         

        Don’t give up the day job Prophet ‘n Loss, its entertaining to see what you can come up with next. This CV of yours won’t help you with a new employer.

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        1. Sdaltaf101

          What’s a CV?

          I’m the enlightened one who foresees the future and the future is Purple.

          Let’s hold hands and bow our heads to the Purple Brick and pray for forgiveness with the knowledge every PB listing removes £2,000+ from the high street.

           

          Have a nice evening, did you put the answer machine on?

          Buy,buy,buy….bye bye 😉

           

           

           

           

           

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          1. PeeBee

            I’d call you an @rse – but, frankly, an @rse has a use so I won’t.

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      2. Ostrich17

        Sdaltaf101  
         
        A lot of people on here predicted they would fail in the US & OZ and the share price increase is more a reflection of the tight market and dramatic fall from the dizzy heights of £5 plus.
         
        As for your High St. Hub prediction – let’s look at what you posted on May 9, 2019….
         
        “It’s inevitable they will exit the US and solely focus on the UK high street and don’t forget It’s the major inventor who pulls the strings and providing Neil Woodford retains his majority stake then access to money will continue, both Woodford and Paul Pindar need Purple Bricks to succeed so it is inevitable they will enter the high street with a range of services to include cheap and cheerful to full VIP service, mortgages, removals, insurance, conveyancing and anything else they can bolt on to their model, they have a huge market of 95% to disrupt and the disruption will be on the high street.”
         
        OH, DEAR…  

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  11. Auther Sleep

    PurpleBricks increase their instruction prices across UK by £100 and no one flutters an eyelid yet some random shares forecaster projecting rubbish makes it into the news so everyone can become share price experts and project doom for a company they have zero inside factual information on in the comments. If companies success or failure is based on shares prices and their value within the first 5 years of being on the market then Facebook, Amazon and other established companies would be long gone by now. Come on, post news not speculation.

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    1. PeeBee

      “PurpleBricks increase their instruction prices across UK by £100 and no one flutters an eyelid…”

      Says who?

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      1. Auther Sleep

        This site, not even reported yet share prices are daily? Surely something that impacts customers is more news worthy than shares in todays current Brexit deal/no deal world

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        1. PeeBee

          The pricing changed yesterday, I believe.  Unless Frau Renshaw corrects me here, I very much doubt that a press release will have been issued to that effect and I don’t believe they ever have “announced” a price increase without being asked about it.

          For stuff like that, it’s a case of “less said the better”.

          I would imagine that some awkward questions are now being asked…

          …watch this space on Monday, I reckon!

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  12. Chris Wood

    How’s that HMRC investigation going Mr Darvey? I’d be wanting a serious word with my predecessors if I were you or your shareholders.

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  13. The Future Is Tech

    PB has a flawed the system is when it comes to ID. Takes days at a time for head office to sign off ID, yet LPEs are self employed and nominate themselves as compliance officers with AML? Buyers can make an offer and seller can accept with zero involvement from the agent. The property can go sstc as soon as the solicitors details are received.LPEs are annoyed because they have to go chasing around for ID, most buyers haven’t given it but the agent can’t access a list to check up on them. This is the AML breach I would imagine is being investigated?

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