Regional sales volumes drop by up to 50% in year since Stamp Duty changes

Sales volumes have dropped by up to 50% across English regions in the year since the Stamp Duty changes were introduced, Land Registry figures show.

The latest available data on transactions in the Land Registry House Price Index shows there were 62,342 sales in March 2017, down 44.3% on last year at the time of the buying rush ahead of the introduction of the extra 3% rate on Stamp Duty for purchases of additional homes.

Transactions in Wales were at 3,451 in March this year, down 35%, while Scottish activity fell 17% to 9,144. Volumes in Northern Ireland dropped 28% to 4,379.

Analysis by EYE of the March 2017 sales volumes on a regional basis show how much the market has been skewed by the Stamp Duty changes which were implemented on April 1 last year.

Transactions fell annually by the most in London at 57% to 6,941, while the south-east was down 47% to 10,648.

The Land Registry points out that the unusually high transactions as a point of comparison in March 2016 were due to the impending Stamp Duty hike, but the sales figures in some areas for March 2017 are also below where they have typically been for the month in previous years of 2014 and 2015.

In March 2015 the Land Registry recorded 9,209 transactions in London and 9,977 a year before.

Similarly, the south-east recorded 12,963 sales in 2014 and 12,153 in 2015.

The east midlands, which saw annual volumes fall 44% in March this year to 7,681, was previously at 8,710 in 2014 and 8,236 in 2015 during the month.

The annual figures may be down around 50% for March 2017, but the data is a bit more impressive on a monthly basis.

Volumes rose on a monthly basis across all regions, with the north-east seeing the biggest pick up between February and March, up 21% to 2,965.

The east midlands was the second best monthly performer, up 17% to 5,858 sales over the month.

London and the south-east were up by the least at 9% and 6% respectively on a monthly basis.

The index also showed that house price growth has slowed from 5.4% in April to 4.7% in May 2017, giving an average house price of £221,000.

The east of England showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 7.5% in the year to May 2017 at £284,097.

This was followed by the east midlands at 7.2% to £180,903. The lowest annual growth was in the north-east, where prices increased by 1.6% over the year to £126,738, followed by London at 3% to £481,345.

Commenting on the figures, Paul Smith, chief executive of haart estate agents, said: “First-time buyers, second steppers and families are all having to pull together an extra £10,000 to buy a home today compared to the same time last year.

“At a time when real incomes are under pressure as inflation overtakes wage growth, it is vital the government gets a grip on house building to ensure there are enough properties available and that people have the ability to take the next step in their life.

“The data also gives the first full picture of how the regional outlook has changed following the introduction of a Stamp Duty surcharge.

“This time last year London was leading the way with almost 14% annual growth. Today we see it trailing behind the rest of the country, bar the north-east, with just 3% growth.

“Although this may come as welcome news to those looking to buy in the capital, it does show the extreme effect the Government’s move has had on London’s economy, and on the rental market.”

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One Comment

  1. Will

    Sense will only be made of the statistics once the markets have had full time to reflect on stamp duty, tax changes on landlords and last couple of years to knee jerk conservative changes in housing law relating to private landlords such as property licensing and excessive new regulation. Until it has all settled down it is pure conjecture. Even then sense can only be made of the effects once matters stabilise!

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