Rightmove can predict when is best time to sell – and when there might be a crash

Do you need a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen in the property market – or do you (or should that be, will you?) just need Rightmove?

In a short and significant interview, Rightmove’s director of data services, Tim Bannister, reveals to Estates Gazette how the portal uses the vast amount of property intelligence it collects.

Rightmove has over 17m property records, and gets over 1.6bn page views a month.

It analyses all this information down to a very local level, to give understanding as to where a particular area might be heading, says Bannister.

It can predict both house prices and transaction levels at a very localised level “with some accuracy”, he says.

That means consumers could know when to sell their homes for most profit – and when there will be a crash.

The information could also be useful for property investors, for example looking to buy in any of London’s local micro-markets.

And it would also be helpful for property businesses planning ahead – for example, firms of surveyors needing to locate their staff in the places they will be most in demand, or agents looking to expand.

The interview does not say whether Rightmove already makes this information available to consumers, or whether it plans to. However, the potential for additional income streams clearly looks to be there and we asked Rightmove for comment.

Yesterday evening a spokesperson told us: “Since 2005 Rightmove’s data services have been using aggregated data and algorithms to provide products including an automated valuation model for lenders, a surveyors comparable tool for surveyors and bespoke data packages for estate agents and new homes developers.

“Agents have access to local market data as part of their membership in RightmovePlus, including tools such as the Best Price Guide and Marketing Report.”

https://estatesgazette.podbean.com/e/tim-bannister-explains-what-to-do-with-16-billion-site-visits-a-months/

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20 Comments

  1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

    Peter Brooks-Johnson: ”Did you see the grilling we got on PIE yesterday. I think agents may be falling out of love with our pricing policy?”

    Rightmove spokesperson: ”No problem boss…I’ll give a quick interview about algorithms  ‘n’ stuff to diffuse the situation and remind agents why we’re so damned expensive”

    I suggest the data will be about as accurate, as a bent musket shot by a man with a hangover…

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    1. P-Daddy

      Statistics…statistics and more damn lies! 82.7 % of algorithms don’t speak English and 98.45674% are based on guesswork.

      Going by the number of calls I am getting from surveyors at eSurv and the like…these algorithms aren’t helping much when looking at properties that aren’t on housing estates or in tower blocks.

      I bet we will see growing panic at Rightmove, they have woken up to their very exposed position, having been outmanoeuvred by Zoopla in the data race and there are classic signs of a dinosaur business. 75% ROCE has been going on for far too long off the back of agents rolling over and their world class reputation for biting the hand that feeds it will now start to feel the winds of change. The pushing up of charges and the add on benefits that are based on hollow slick presentations need to be questioned. BEWARE and remember you are all supposed to be negotiators. Remember Theresa May (as the best negotiator out there 🙂 ) keeps reminding us that no deal is better than a bad deal. Meanwhile the Trumpster stirs everyone up by saying..’I don’t like it, I’m now walking’! Watch how they will come back cap in hand! The majority of agents are working off falling margins, now its the turn of Rightmove…and your weapon of choice can be OTM. It gives you leverage…wake up corporates too!

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  2. Robert May

    Errr profit on your home? Unusual concept. “Let’s sell up and take a profit on our home dear” Brilliant idea, where are we going to live? Ah!

    Property owners can speculate on property,  most home owners can’t and the difference between people who sell property and estate agents is recognising and understanding the difference between the two.

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    1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

      Mr May, if the current ‘crop’ of politicians, being lobbied by the usual suspects (Gen. Rent/Shelter et al) have their way, profiting on one’s home/property may be an unusual concept, in the not too distant future. The view of the current policy makers seems to be ”If it ain’t broke, break it a little bit, tell everyone it’s broken, and then break it some more…”

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      1. Robert May

        Well then while we’re  breaking stuff let’s break with giving data to the portals so they can sell the data back to the agents who gave them the data in the first place.

         

         

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        1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

          That sir, is a sterling idea.

          The selling of data, is one reason when we recently switched from one software provider to another, we avoided a ZPG product- One never knows where one’s client data may end up.

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          1. Robert May

             If the portals were denied use of agents’ data; property type and number of bedrooms, copyright photgographs etc post completion the only information available to an agent’s competitors would be  the stuff available from land registry. That’s not really much use to those reliant on agents’ data to cut agents out of the selling process.

             

            You know exactly where the data will end up, it will be  sat there with the vendor when you arrive at an appraisal and it will follow you into every appraisal in your competitor’s satchel albeit with 2 lots of 10% added on for good measure.

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            1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

              I believe there is great ‘bargaining’ power in the numbers of discontented agents who have become increasingly frustrated by RM’s application of a policy of annually demanding a larger fee. Perhaps a poster with a greater understanding of Consumer Law than I, could advise on the following (an idea that has been proffered by other contributors in the past)?:-

              Hypothetically, were an amount of agents (say 300-500+) to approach RM as a collective, and demand lower fees (a reduction of 30%)  as well as a cessation of the rights for RM (included in RM’s T&Cs) to use particular elements of subscribed agent’s client/property data, on the basis that if such demands were not met the agents had a agreed on a moratorium of say, 3 months. What would be the position legally of corralling agents into such a movement?

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              1. Robert May

                If I build something  better and agents who  simply cannot afford to  pay a subscription  to another service supplier decide to use my system  that is the whole basis of consumer  law. The pressure  is on me yo build something better. Those who have seen  what I’m  up to think I have.

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                1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

                  Mr May, a commendable endeavour certainly- Assuming you’re referring to Addjuvare’s site (which looks superb- I am a great fan of the minimalist aesthetic), and please pardon my ignorance; having had a look at the site, searches appear to rely on agents having their stock listed on the portals (granted the need to be listed on multiple portals is somewhat negated should enough traffic be driven to the site)- is the aim to reach a critical mass in terms of traffic, and then invite agents to list directly (presumably at a more reasonable cost, or to offer agent listings free of charge and support the site through advertising revenue alone, or a mix of both revenue streams?

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                  1. Robert May

                    The portal interrogator that’s up at the moment isn’t the product we’re building it’s there for 2 reasons;  1st so come the day rummage4.property is one Google knows and trusts. Second it shows how bad the portals own search systems are for  finding what you want to find rather than going through the tortuous routines the portals force  applicants to use in order to drive up hits, page views and time on site.

                    Simplicity, speed and accuracy are things we are focusing on. As an example we aim to get an agent’s phone ringing  or  the applicant viewing the agents own site in under 20 seconds. Our philosophy is property search should focus on the agents, not us.

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                    1. Eyereaderturnedposter12

                      Commendable indeed.

                       

                      I very much look forward to seeing/using the ‘launched’ product. Best wishes of continued success

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                    2. Robert May

                      Thank you.  We’ve got a summer of consolidation ahead of us.  At Christmas I was 3 staff and now I’m up to 7. We have built a product strong enough to demo, now we are building a company, a customer base and a  future we have control over.

                      A Suzanne and Russell get their feet under the table, expect to read a bit more from them, both have a lot to offer making this a success.

                       

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  3. Moveaside01

    Rightmove can predict when is best time to sell – and when there might be a crash?
    After yesterday’s article, are they talking about their share price?

    RM have rinsed us for so long they will have no agency loyalty left in the bank account cometh the hour…….

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  4. Hillofwad71

    Dangerous waters valuing By RM.Relying on yesterday’s news is a recipe for disaster The raw data of the last sale on RM  doesn’t tell you if  the trend has reversed. Is the market going up or down?It doesn’t tell you anything about all the myriad   factors which contributed to the price achieved for a specific property.

     

     

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  5. RAL

    just a further thought from yesterdays article ….would it be possible I wonder to start building a register of agents who are possible rightmove – exiteers ( that may be everyone ) but are prepared to commit to a register on the basis that when it hit a certain number of companies, say 250, notice was given to RM together. Just an idea to keep the discussiongoing but not too sure whether this would create legal problems ..

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  6. scruffy

    I love that Rightmove are getting so much flack, and can’t wait for the day when I tell my local rep to report to Mr Shipside that the party is over.

    What sticks in my mind is James Bee’s comment yesterday:  “when asked for a little leeway in the last recession they told me to fire staff or close offices in order to pay their bill.”  This echoes the experience of many of us when faced with the unbelievable arrogance of a company exploiting a near monopoly position. Subscriptions rose through good times and bad and we have been powerless to resist and have been slow to seize the chance when presented.

    That is not the position now. I do not wish my business and marketing choices to be dictated to by anyone, so the sooner we, as agents, recognise that the portal choice is better then ever, the sooner Rightmove can rejoin the real world and we can be willing participants in its future. It has an excellent offering, but its present fee structure and price level will soon kill it.

     

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  7. aSalesAgent

    “Rightmove’s data services have been using aggregated data and algorithms to provide products including an automated valuation model for lenders.”

     

    In the last two-to-three months I have seen a marked increase in the number of lenders relying upon desktop-valuations. We have also seen a rise in the number of downvaluations – and that’s without a surveyor having actually visited the property!

    Is this Rightmove’s fault, or that of another ‘helpful’ PropTech company?

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  8. Ric

    My ****

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  9. PeeBee

    Not to put too fine a point on it…

    …what a crock of useless 5h!t.

    The second an algorythm takes the place of a homeowner’s head and heart is the second I walk away from this crazy frickin’ industry and get a proper job.

    ‘cos trying with a rubber needle to sew a button on a f@rt with my head in a shaken sack of wasps is starting to look slightly less glamorous than it did back in the day…

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