RICS piles on the gloom after seeing both instructions and demand drop

The new year has brought little cheer to estate agents, the RICS said this morning in yet another downbeat report.

New numbers from the notoriously gloomy RICS show that 17% more agents noted a decline in instructions than saw an increase in January, making it the weakest level since last May.

New buyer enquiries also slipped for the tenth successive month, with 11% more RICS estate agency firms seeing a drop than a rise.

The balance of those recording newly agreed sales was also negative for the 11th month in a row, as the number of properties on agents’ books continued to slide.

Looking forward, agents were more optimistic about growth, with 33% more expecting increased business over the coming 12 months, but this measure was flat among those looking at a three-month horizon.

Agents were also polled about asking prices. Two thirds said prices for properties worth above £1m were coming in below asking price, with 34% seeing discounts of between 5% and 10%.

For properties listed between £500,000 and £1m, 56% of respondents cited sales prices coming in below asking price, with 41% saying prices achieved were up to 5% below.

Another 58% said properties marketed at up to £500k were coming in at the same level as asking prices or slightly above, although a still significant 42% said they were below.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist for RICS, said: “The latest RICS results point to housing transactions at a headline remaining pretty subdued over the coming months despite some more positive comments from contributors to the survey.

“Lack of inventory on agents’ books continues to provide a major challenge with the number of valuations being undertaken not suggestive of a pick-up in new supply any time soon.

“Divergent regional trends remain very much to the fore with the market in many parts of the country still actually behaving in a solid if unspectacular way despite the downbeat headlines.

“Affordability issues continue to play a key role in explaining this pattern with those areas where house price earnings are most stretched seeing the softest markets.”

Meanwhile, a bank has warned that a wave of residential developments in some of London’s most sought-after areas risks creating oversupply problems that could force even bigger discounts on asking prices in order to get homes sold.

The Coutts London Prime Property Index (CLPPI) analysed the market for London residential property worth between £1m and £10m for the fourth quarter of 2017, focusing on 15 areas of the capital.

It said there were 26,000 new units under construction or with planning permission in those areas — making up half of all such developments in the capital.

Battersea alone is hosting 22% of new buildings under construction across the parts of the capital that CLPPI examined, with central, west and south-west London leading the charge on developments.

The number was high enough to create a risk of oversupply issues, the report warned.

Currently, buyers are obtaining an average discount of 11% off prime property.

The average discount on a property under the £1m price tag was 7.4%.

According to the report, there are 7,500 new homes currently under construction in the areas it studied, and an additional 19,000 have planning permission to build.

The top three areas where most new-builds are under construction or with permission granted are: Kensington, Notting Hill & Holland Park (25%), Battersea, Clapham & Wandsworth (15%) and Fulham & Earls Court (9%).

Coutts said it expected prices across prime London markets to remain relatively flat for the next two years as Brexit negotiations continue and the market assimilates the effect of the recent changes in Stamp Duty.

George Toumbev, head of lending propositions at Coutts, said: “As luxury new developments do come at a premium, can be sensitive to property downturns, and are often concentrated in a few areas, we encourage buyers to remain cautious about this part of the market and to be mindful of the local market prices for existing property in the area.”

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