In December last year I made some predictions for the 2024 UK housing market and I also suggested what might happen within the industry itself.
Unlike our friends at Knight Frank etc, when I make bets for 12 months ahead I stand by them. And so you won’t have seen me ‘revising’ my predictions during this year as factors changed and conspired to alter outcomes. I stood by my forecasts.
So, before I reveal whether I was accurate, let’s first acknowledge that 2024 did yield a number of unexpected and game changing developments that could and should have sabotaged any foundations of forward-looking certainty:
+ A general election that returned a UK Labour government for the first time in 19 years.
+ Street riots and the rise of the ‘Far Right BogeyMan’.
+ An economic Black Hole (but which the OBR still can’t seem to find).
+ A dodgy Budget full of ill-thought out sixth-form ideology created and proposed by a Chancellor whose fiscal qualifications amount to handling customer complaints in an HBOS Bank call centre. Farmers, pensioners and business owners bashed.
+ Increasing political and social tension in Britain and internationally over Gaza between those supporting Israel and those supporting Palestine.
+ A US presidential election complete with multiple assassination attempts resulting in the reinstatement of a New York TV star/property tycoon to the White House.
+ A continuing war in Ukraine at a financial cost of circa one trillion pounds.
All said and done it’s been a year of challenge and the unexpected with world financial markets being tested on a daily basis.
But despite these headwinds, all likely to have sent the UK economy and the property market down a huge, dark hole all of its own, my predictions were spot on. Well, almost.
Eleven months ago these are the ten things I said would happen in the coming year:
+ Average house prices will rise by around 2% to 3% – Outcome: Correct. UK Government HPI up 2.9% (Oops, sorry Charlie)
+ New housebuilding completions will be at one of the lowest levels in decades – circa 160,000 completions – Outcome: Correct. 162,710 homes built in the last 12 months
+ We will not enter recession in 2024 – Outcome: Correct. We did not see two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage
+ Rishi Sunak will not be prime minister by the time of the 2024 general election (Oct/Nov). Keep an eye on Nigel Farage – Outcome: Wrong. Except the Farage bit. Half a point?
+ OnTheMarket will rebrand and then grow website traffic and agent market share substantially. But the current management team will exit – Outcome: Wrong. But merely delayed until early 2025
+ Something ‘big’ will happen in the self-employed estate agency sector – Outcome: Correct. LSL and YOPA entered the space. But there’s bigger news to come in 2025 still.
+ Putting the ‘free’ into ‘freefall’, Purplebricks will increase losses by another £20m (see also ‘broken clocks’ above) – Outcome: Correct. Losses of £19,718,000 according to Strike’s accounts
+ The London estate/letting agency M&A market will explode with activity – Outcome: Correct. Lomond, Dexters, Foxtons and a number of other estate agency businesses made multiple acquisitions (more to come in December)
And just for fun:
+ Gary Lineker will no longer front Match of the Day – Outcome: Correct
+ Harry and Meghan will split – Outcome: Wrong. But, again, a certainty merely delayed 😉
I make that 7/10. Not bad at all – and no doubt most annoying to some especially when you note that my predictions on house prices, new build numbers and Purplebricks’ losses were uncannily precise. Spookily so.
You won’t be surprised therefore that coming soon and exclusive to Property Industry Eye, will be my 2025 industry forecasts – together with the following week’s lottery numbers and the Christmas Number One 😉
Place your bets.
What is going to happen to UK house prices over next five years?