Fresh housing market data has painted a more cautious picture of sales activity, despite separate figures showing an improvement in the proportion of new listings converting into agreed sales.
TwentyCi reports that sales agreed fell year-on-year for a fourth consecutive month in August. At the same time, the number of homes coming to market has reached its highest level in a decade.
The figures contrast with new Sprift data showing the national sales conversion rate rising to a six-month high. However, that improvement reflected new listings falling faster than sales agreed during August. It did not represent an increase in the number of deals being struck.
TwentyCi’s figures show sales agreed were around 8% lower year-on-year in May and June. They then fell 5% in July and 6% in August.
Across the first eight months of 2026, sales agreed were 5.4% below the same period last year.
Meanwhile, new property listings increased 2.1% year-on-year and reached their highest level for 10 years.
The combination is giving buyers more choice and increasing competition between sellers.
Weaker pipeline
The sales agreed figures contrast with more resilient completed transaction data.
HMRC recorded 5% more residential transactions year-on-year in July. However, transaction numbers remain 2.5% lower across the year to date.
TwentyCi said completed transaction figures largely reflect deals negotiated earlier in the year. Its more timely sales agreed data points to a weaker pipeline feeding through during the final quarter.
The data firm forecasts 1.16 million residential transactions in 2026. That would represent a 3.9% fall from the 1.21 million recorded in 2025. Volumes would still stand 5.6% above 2024.
Colin Bradshaw, CEO of TwentyCi, said: “The housing market is presenting something of a mixed picture. On the surface, the latest transaction figures suggest that activity remains relatively resilient, but when we look at the more timely sales agreed data, a different story is emerging.
“Buyer demand has fallen by more than 5% year-on-year in every month since May, and that sustained weakness will inevitably feed through into completed transactions with a lag.”
Buyers gain ground
More homes for sale and fewer agreed sales are also shifting the balance of the market towards buyers.
TwentyCi said its demand-to-supply ratio has deteriorated across every major property type. Flats recorded the largest year-on-year decline at 13.2%.
Affordability could come under further pressure from rising swap rates. Some mortgage lenders have already increased fixed rates despite no change in Bank Rate.
Bradshaw added: “The renewed rise in swap rates adds another layer of uncertainty. If fixed mortgage pricing continues to move upwards, it could put further pressure on affordability and make buyers even more cautious at a time when demand is already subdued.”
