Sales fell last month right across the UK, according to the latest HMRC transaction figures, on both a monthly and yearly basis. The extents of the falls are heavily disguised by HMRC using ‘seasonally adjusted’ numbers.
The actual, non-adjusted, figures show drops which should spell out what the Chancellor may have to do in today’s Autumn Statement to re-ignite activity in the housing market.
Across the UK, the total number of transactions last month stood at 100,300, down from 119,950 in October a year ago, and also down from 106,940 in September.
In England, sales tumbled to 85,700, down from 90,430 on a monthly basis and down from 102,540 in October last year.
Sales in Scotland were 8,120, down from 9,360 in September and down from 9,880 on an annual basis.
In Wales, there were 4,500 house sales in October, down from 5,120 annually and from 2,250 from the month before.
Sales in Northern Ireland were 1,930 – a drop from 2,250 in September and from 2,410 in September last year.
All the figures quoted above are the ‘actuals’.
The massaged ‘seasonally adjusted’ figures paint a happier, but arguably false, picture.
For example, the seasonally adjusted figure for October shows a UK total of 97,640 housing sales, which somehow manages to be up from 96,630 the month before.
However, even seasonal adjustment still admits to a drop of nearly 10,000 monthly sales measured on an annual basis.
A year ago, seasonally adjusted sales were 106,120.
As EYE has consistently said, it is surely time to jettison the misleading ‘seasonally adjusted’ figures so often trotted out.
As any business knows, it is the ‘actuals’ that count.
Comments (6)
Not only seasonally adjusted, but whats happened to London? PCL? They seem to stand alone like a shining beacon in all other news and yet here; not even a whiff of London.
Perhaps Donald Trump should tweet a suggestion to May/Hammond that Farage will be the most suitable candidate to help sort this mess out!
This is good to add to Hammond’s attempts today to crash the PRS.
Presumably he has a plan to house the homeless when the PRS contracts and home sales tumble.
Baldrick?
If you believe he’ll do anything that helps the market then you are mistaken. It will have to get far, far worse. The only thing that will wake them up is when they get the spreadsheet from HMRC that shows SDLT receipts are seriously down. Government doesn’t run like a business – they have much higher ‘ideals & principles’ – and the people involved get paid anyway so who gives a ….
Your last comment is so so true! People making the decisions that affect other people’s lives, businesses and incomes, still get paid ….however wrong they get it.
Rules and regulations were brought in 2/3 years ago which started to limit supply at a time when demand was increasing. Optional local relocators have started largely ‘sticking’ rather than ‘twisting’ leaving less and less choice for people thinking about moving. They can’t see anywhere they would like to move to …..and choose not to market their own property. Add into the mix the uncertainty caused by the referendum result…..what do worried people do….nothing, they sit tight to wait and see. This has become a self fulfilling downward spiral of supply in our area.
If the autumn statement has no ‘stimulated optomism’ today, I just wonder what next year supply levels are going to look like!