Market may have reached plateau, say lenders

The housing market appears to have reached a plateau, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

CML figures show that lending reached £17.8bn in September, which is 1% lower than August (£18bn), but 10% higher than September last year (£16.2bn).

Gross mortgage lending for the third quarter was estimated at £55.5bn. This represents an 8% increase from the second quarter of this year, and a 13% increase on the third quarter of 2013 (£49.2bn).

CML chief economist Bob Pannell said: “Uncertainty over when we will see the first increase in UK base rates is exacerbated by weaker growth prospects in several major economies, including the Eurozone.

“Recent indicators and policy actions corroborate our view of a gentle easing in market conditions. There is growing evidence that mortgage lending activity, and the housing market, are sitting on a plateau.”

Paul Smith, CEO at haart, said: “CML’s lending figures remain steady and we are still seeing huge demand from buyers with ten chasing every property across the UK.

“First-time buyers in London are being even more resourceful to get on the ladder with many seeking out cheaper property on the fringes of the capital with good transport links such as East Ham and Dagenham where you can still buy a three-bedroom property for under £250,000.”

Peter Rollings, CEO of Marsh & Parsons, said: “We’re watching with interest the natural ebb and flow of the property market.

“After a strong surge at the start of the year, house price growth is easing to more natural levels, and as a result, overall mortgage lending dipped in the month to September.

“But the stream of lending has not dried up, and the mortgage market has negotiated the new criteria of the Mortgage Market Review around the introduction of tighter affordability checks and more rigorous regulation in the spring.

“Confidence is still buoyant, kept afloat by the growing pool of available properties on the market and some outstanding mortgage products coming to the market since the indication from the Bank of England that interest rates would stay lower for longer.

“Trading conditions are considerably less turbulent than they were a few months ago, and buyers and sellers alike are enjoying the less frenetic pace, increased choice and the calmer pace of competition, and this is already leading to a more active fourth quarter of the year.

“The only obstacles that could disrupt the course of the recovery are additional interventions in the mortgage market or premature withdrawal of schemes like Help to Buy, which could sink first-time buyer aspirations and stall progress further up the chain.”

David Newnes, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents, said: “It’s been a blustery few months for lending, but it hasn’t been completely blown off course and the housing market still has momentum.

“Some regions are more exposed to the elements than others and many home owners are still waiting for property prices to be rebuilt to pre-crisis levels.

“The growth we have seen in London and the south-east has long towered over the rest of the country and the recovery still requires some buttressing in some places. But lending is starting to spread to where it’s needed most, and the south-west and Wales recently edged above the capital with the greatest share of UK mortgage approvals.”

Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, said: “The pedal may be slightly off the gas in the mortgage market at the moment, but it is still moving in the right direction.

“There are still a host of first-time buyers chomping at the bit of the property market, eager to own their own homes. Help to Buy is of particular importance in areas where the labour market has been slower to pick up, where borrowers are seeing their finances recover much more slowly.

“These areas are still in a delicate balance of recovery. They need the scheme to spur confidence among first-time buyers, as much as to provide access to the housing market to borrowers who can’t afford to put together a deposit. These regions are only just waking up from the coma of the crisis and need continued support to become fully rehabilitated.”

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