Gross mortgage lending in 2024 looks set to be stronger than anticipated

More than 80% of TMA Club’s mortgage brokers predicted an increase in mortgage lending in 2024 compared to official forecasts.

Gross lending fell by 28% to £226bn last year as borrowers tightened their belts amid rapidly rising living costs.

However, as part of a recent poll undertaken by TMA Club at a recent event, one in five brokers believed gross lending in 2024 will be over £251bn.

A further three in five expect gross lending this year to be between £220bn and £250bn.

TMA’s development director, Lisa Martin,  said: “Inflation fears are receding faster than the Bank of England had been expecting and the latest indications from the governor Andrew Bailey suggest we may see a base rate cut later in the year.

“That shift in the first three months of this year has boosted borrower confidence and advisers are seeing more engagement.

“There are still affordability pressures but lenders are definitely pricing to take market share and that’s keeping activity up.”

There are growing signs that the housing market is improving  as demand from buyers continues to grow, while remortgage activity remains steady as credit conditions continue to get better.

Anthony, of RBC Capital Markets, commented: “The Bank of England’s Q1 Credit Conditions Survey reflected what we are already seeing in the UK housing market. Credit conditions are improving. Mortgage availability is rising and the number of mortgage applications being approved is increasing.

“Mortgage pricing didn’t fall in the first quarter, but they didn’t rise either, and mortgage pricing is expected to be flat in the coming quarter. This is good news for those looking to buy a home and is further evidence that the UK housing market has not pressed the pause button whilst we wait for a general election.”


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