Current market ‘in complete contrast’ to 2008 financial crisis

The current situation in the property market bears no similarity to the downturn brought on by the financial crisis, according to Damon Bullimore, CTO of Nurtur Group and founder of BriefYourMarket.

Bullimore says that the core difference is that in 2008, there was an “institutional crash” with no monetary flow in the market and banks withdrawing funding. “This is in complete contrast to what we are seeing today,” he said in conversation with Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals.

“What we are seeing in this market is a reaction to a poor mini-budget which had a direct impact on the market, an impact we have seen pull through in the data with the number of fall-throughs trebling,” Bullimore added. “However, I am pleased to say that was a short, sharp shock and directly correlated to the mini-budget.”

Despite rising inflation resulting in higher interest rates, Bullimore insisted that the market is heading for normality rather than a crisis.

“There is some interesting data that suggests that unless interest rates rise to over 8%, there is no direct correlation between interest rates and the housing market,” he explained. “I think what is important to say is that 5% to 6% interest rates, which is where I think they will stabilise, is actually a normal market, especially when looking at historical data where we see interest rates north of 14%.”

Bullimore argued that “5% to 6% is still considered a good rate at which to borrow money”, adding: “It is obviously more expensive than what we have seen over the past years, but still far more accessible than 14%.”

Citing BriefYourMarket data from the last month, Bullimore observed that there are still over one million properties on sale, and that from 1 October 2022, 147,161 came to the market. “This points to the fact that there is still activity, with 103,012 properties that were sold subject to contract during that time frame,” he said. “I still believe based on this data that next year we will see post a million transactions.”

McKenzie agreed that transactional volume was important.

“We know that good agents will navigate the waters of price increases or declines, but transactional volume is the important thing,” he said. “Good agents will always thrive and survive, so now it is about focusing on the day-to-day aspects that will benefit them in the current market.”



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  1. BillyTheFish

    The market was tanking before the mini budget though. Falling from white hot in spring is a long way to go, I think luke warm is the best description now.

    The crunch was only one thing for sure, and look at what happened. What we have now is: aftermath of covid, brexit, Ukraine, cost of living/fuel/energy/food/housing/health crises all together. I don’t think the economy is in great shape and when all the borrowers with policies ending in ‘23 find their rate has doubled or more they are not going to carry on spending. Luxury items go first, then eating out and so on.

    A recession is the best we can hope for and should be preparing for. Making out that a 5/6% rate is somehow good is completely ridiculous.


    1. jan-byers

      Brexit was a long time ago and affected nothing

      East Europeans working in Tesco were not buy8ing houses

      All of what has happened is due to the war

      Interest rates have been low fir years and anyone with a brains knew that would not be the status quo

      We are returning to normal rates

      As someone  with saving I and my parents are pleased

      Not everyone on the planet is obsessed with house prices

      1. Anonymous Coward

        You’re mistaken, but at least you’re not being outright rude this time, although there is some heavy xenophobia in there.

        It has been widely reported that the negative affect of Brexit (minus 4% GDP) on the UK economy is twice as bad as the negative affect of Covid (minus 2% GDP).

        The best estimates for the negative affect of the Ukraine war is 0.9% GDP.


        * Brexit is still having an effect on us right now even though the vote was in 2016
        * Europeans did buy houses and contribute to our economy. The can’t any more of course because of Brexit.
        * Clearly it is not all because of the war – please see above

        We are returning to normal rates which is indeed a good thing.

        But, and here’s the kicker, a significant percentage of the UK population has been oversold on cheap credit.  You could blame them because they should have known better.  But then again, you might also want to blame a predatory system that should never have been allowed to lend to them.

        And finally, for the average person in the street, the UK economy is specifically designed around ever increasing house prices.

    2. Snyper

      I will be finding myself in that situation next year… end of a 5 year fixed mortgage at 2.26% and I used HTB – on current rates and incorporating my HTB into my mortgage I’m looking at a doubling monthly repayment.


      Slightly offset by my childcare costs disappearing next year – a whole another topic in itself – but it’s something we will be able to swallow. I fear there are many in a similar situation that won’t be able to absorb the large increases and we’ll see people moving for affordability reasons.


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