Average house prices in England could reach £301,867 in the next decade and hit almost £1m in 20 years if values keep rising at the same rate, an agent has claimed.
However, in one region, the north-east, homes could actually be worth less in 2027 than they are now.
Online agent eMoov has crunched Land Registry data to assess how much it would cost future generations to get on the property ladder if prices generally keep increasing at the same rate over the next ten and 20 years.
If prices rise by 29%, as they have since 2007, the data claims they will reach £301,864, and in London will hit £866,719 on average.
However, the north-east, which has actually seen values drop 4% in the past decade, would see values go from £126,989 to £121,699 over the next ten years using the same formula.
The research found that by 2037, based on house prices rising 320% in the past 20 years, three regions could tip well over the £1m mark, with the average house price across England falling just short at £983,826.
In London, if the market continues to inflate, the average property cost would climb by a further 480%, putting the average house price at an eye-watering £2,792,783.
The south-east could climb to £1,422,708 over two decades if prices increased by another 354%, trailed by the east of England where the average house price would hit £1,311,380 after climbing 371%.
Of course, with Brexit negotiations afoot and plenty of changes still to come in the buy-to-let market, there are plenty of upcoming pressures on prices.
Russell Quirk, chief executive of eMoov, said: “Despite the usual industry speculation, it’s not likely that we’ll see a bursting of the house price bubble any time soon, but perhaps a slight deflation temporarily.
“Should this be the case, this research highlights the near impossible task faced by the next generation of aspirational buyers and acts as a warning to the government should they fail to address the current lack of property available, which is seeing prices once again reach dangerously inflated levels.
“The property boom in several regions of England has made it increasingly more expensive to get on the ladder, and the figures anticipating the next two decades only further attest to the importance of investing in a home as soon as possible if the trend in increasing property values is to persist.
“It is stomach churning to think that should prices continue the way they are, there will be just one real area of property affordability left across England and Wales in 20 years’ time, with the average house price in England approaching the £1m mark and three regions tipping beyond this.”
How does your region fare?
|
Region |
Average House Price (2007) |
Average House Price (2017) |
% Change (Last 10 Years) |
Average House Price (2027) |
|
London |
£267,658 |
£481,648 |
80% |
£866,719 |
|
South East |
£220,546 |
£313,334 |
42% |
£445,159 |
|
East of England |
£194,994 |
£278,349 |
43% |
£397,335 |
|
South West |
£197,597 |
£239,371 |
21% |
£289,976 |
|
East Midlands |
£151,360 |
£176,524 |
17% |
£205,870 |
|
West Midlands |
£144,775 |
£163,162 |
13% |
£183,883 |
|
North West |
£142,760 |
£150,249 |
5% |
£158,131 |
|
Wales |
£139,760 |
£146,742 |
5% |
£154,072 |
|
North East |
£132,508 |
£126,989 |
-4% |
£121,699 |
|
England |
£181,824 |
£234,278 |
29% |
£301,864 |
|
Region |
Average House Price (1997) |
Average House Price (2017) |
% Change (Last 20 Years) |
Average House Price (2037) |
|
London |
£83,066 |
£481,648 |
480% |
£2,792,783 |
|
South East |
£69,008 |
£313,334 |
354% |
£1,422,708 |
|
East of England |
£59,081 |
£278,349 |
371% |
£1,311,380 |
|
South West |
£57,751 |
£239,371 |
314% |
£992,157 |
|
East Midlands |
£46,775 |
£176,524 |
277% |
£666,178 |
|
West Midlands |
£47,536 |
£163,162 |
243% |
£560,038 |
|
North West |
£42,353 |
£150,249 |
255% |
£533,010 |
|
Wales |
£43,525 |
£146,742 |
237% |
£494,731 |
|
North East |
£42,353 |
£126,989 |
200% |
£380,753 |
|
England |
£55,789 |
£234,278 |
320% |
£983,826 |
Bit cliche? how about we hear a bit more about industry domination by 2016 blah blah blah. What happened to that?
It is 2017 now, what I want to know is; the land registry figures also show an annual decline in transaction volumes currently compound -2%, how can a business that has insulated itself from the benefits of increasing property prices by charging a fixed fee not a commission based on sale price hope to survive if it’s % market share isn’t increasing at more than +2% or at +8.9% annually to keep pace with the traditional pricing model?
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does emoov own PIE or something?? this #fake headline is normally found in the spam ads on rubbish websites.
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You don’t do irony, do you Bless You?
I’d guess PIE used the headline straight off the Quirkster’s press release – knowing full well that PIE readers would recognise it for what it is – a daft attempt to grab some column inches in the national press. It’s the sort of thing the Mail and Express lap up and regurgitate on a daily basis.
That said, Quirk could certainly teach OTM a thing or two about getting publicity!
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Unfortunately Russell’s pronouncements from the mount concerning figures, don’t exactly have a great pedigree.
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To be fair he is better at yacking on, getting publicity and column cms than most CEOs, it probably makes sense to concentrate on building a career doing that than trying to compete with competitors that have better backing or who simply do a better job, are better known, better qualified, more local etc.
Looking at the numbers that affect the industry today not 20 years time is a better use of a boss’s time; What do we need to do today to pay the wages and deliver a profit? When all of that is taken care of the boss has the luxury of spouting off to the press and media. This yack might stand Russell in good stead for a future career but sadly it won’t win many instructions today.
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I have this image in my head of Russell pacing around a bleak soul less call center mumbling to himself about needing publicity asking a poor apprentice on £2.80 an hour for the next big idea.
The apprentice turns round and says the budget has gone for big ideas and investment is drying up as previous boasts and claims have been proven unsuccessful.
Russell then says he will have to do it himself and save the day.
With that he does what he does best quote some large figures!
*There is no truth in the above I am sure *
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love it!
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wont be long before another round of funding is needed promising that this is the last time they will need a cash injection before taking over the world and slagging off the real agents for overcharging. Ewe charlatan.
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Coming from Russel Quirk who’s figures are as notoriously overinflated and exaggerated as his ego? I’ll go back to speaking to my two year old. The conversation is more scintillating and honest.
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Guess this is just to court more publicity. But you can’t predict that far into the future with anything more than a wet finger in the air…. you can only look at current trends and what is happening to them. That’s what we do.
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i would like to give him credit for using reverse psychology in talking the market up. Maybe he understands that a “Heavy”. sellers market underpins online only agents as they wouldn’t stand a chance in a flat, retracting or buyers market.
But
i won’t give him that credit because I think he is a large male chicken that has read a blog on the power of info graphs.
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One good news … in 20 years we will all be earning over £1m salaries and petrol will be £20 a litre, Lol.
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For anyone needing proof that The Quirkster hasn’t got a Scooby about Jack – here it is!
This is DNA evidence that any previously observed comprehension of sending out marketing messages to a particular sector – whether that sector be buyer, seller, landlord or tenant (giving him the benefit of grave doubt that he could ever differentiate between them in the first place…) – has ‘done an Elvis’ and left the building. Departed, never to return. Gorn. Vamoosed.
Varnished into fin hair, to put not too fine a point on it.
Keep it up, Mr Q – saves us the bother of highlighting your vast array of inadequacies when you hoist them up on telegraph poles yerself.
…you’re not ‘arf missing your Marketing Minion now, ain’tcha!
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