Optimism for mortgage market in 2024 after ‘difficult’ year

CalculatorMonthly mortgage approvals fell by up to 24% in 2023 compared to the previous year, according to analysis by GetAgent.

However, the comparison website is predicting the market will rebound to some extent in 2024.

Using the available data, GetAgent analysed monthly mortgage approvals over the past five years and found that between January and October 2023, an average of 47,602 mortgages were given the green light per month.

If the trend continued in the final two months of the year, this would bring the total to 571,219.

This means 2023 was the second year in a row that mortgage volumes fell significantly – they dropped by 20% between 2021 and 2022, from 937,093 to 752,131). According to GetAgent’s analysis, approvals have dropped 39% from their 2021 peak, amounting to 365,874 fewer mortgages.

However, after December’s decision by the Bank of England to hold the base rate for a third consecutive month, the market is finally benefiting from some stability.

In addition, GetAgent noted that the cost of lenders’ funding is also falling, so mortgage rates could become more competitive in 2024, reversing the trend witnessed over the past two years.

However, while this year could be a better one than 2023 for the mortgage market, it’s unlikely to reach the peak of 2021, according to the comparison site; that year was “heavily fired up” by the government’s stamp duty holiday, while the market was underpinned by a record low base rate of 0.10% for most of the year.

Colby Short, co-founder of GetAgent, commented: “There’s no getting around it, 2023 was a difficult year for the property industry, as higher mortgage rates have dragged down people’s ability to buy.

“The one positive is the Bank of England has left the base rate unchanged since August 2023, which is helping people adjust to a new normal, as well as raising the potential for rate cuts in the new year.”

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