In this week’s show, special guest Kristian Stott and I talk about the current state of play in the UK Property Market for the week ending Sunday 8th October 2023.
Looking at the data as we enter the final quarter of the year – here’s a brief summary:
Listings YTD 2023 are 99.7% of the 2017/8/9 YTD average
Gross Sales YTD 2023 are 94.3% of the 2017/8/9 YTD average
Net Sales YTD 2023 are 89.9% of the 2017/8/9 YTD average
Looking at key statistics in more detail.
· New Properties to the Market (Listings): The number of listings last week was 32,051. The 2023 YTD running weekly average stands strong at 32,677.
· Average Listing Price: The average listing price is now showing sings of returning to the sums seen in the Summer. Average Listing price this week £436,741. The 2023 running weekly average of £432,926. % Difference between Listing and Sale Agreed prices at 23% this week. 2023 YTD average 21% and Long term 7 year average 17%.
· Price Reductions: 24,358 price reductions were seen last week. The 2023 running weekly average is 20,188 per week. This means approximately 14.8% of Resi Stock is being reduced per month (ie just under 1 in 7)
· Average Asking Price of Properties Being Reduced: This week’s average asking price of reduced properties £412,860. The 2023 running weekly average of £403,537.
· Number of Properties Sold (Gross Sales): Gross sales increased from last week’s Gross sales figures. Total number of gross sales in the UK last week was 20,616. For comparison, the 2023 running weekly average is 21,777 weekly sales (stc).
· Average Asking Price of Properties Sold STC this Week: The average asking price of the properties selling last week was £356,252 . The 2023 running weekly average of £357,310. Interestingly, for the whole of 2023, the actual weekly average asking price figure has only been 3% more or 3% less than running average.
· Sale Fall Throughs: 28.07% sale fall thru rate (Sale fall Thru Rate % is the number of sales fall Thrus for the week expressed as a percentage of Gross Sales for the week). The 2023 running weekly average is 25.64% (although, don’t forget, in Q4 2022, the average was North of 38%). The seven-year long-term average is 24.3%.
· Net Sales This Week: Net Sales returned to the Q3 average to 14,829. The running weekly average since July is 14,729 per week.
· Net Sales Year-to-Date: Despite the challenges, the year-to-date net sales of 652k showcase despite the challenging economic news, the market is 10.1% behind the 2017/8/9 average YTD for net sales
In the last 20 minutes of the show, there is the usual local focus, and this week it is on Fulham.
thank god we have these property experts telling us “what’s happening in the UK property market this week”
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Thank you Gangsta Agent for your delightful appreciation! It’s always refreshing to encounter individuals who value the weekly tempo of property market updates. It’s like a good TV series, isn’t it? Except here, instead of cliffhangers, we have property listings and sale figures keeping us on the edge of our seats.
Your comment, though laced with a dash of humour, underscores a common underestimation of the meticulous analysis and data interpretation that specialists like Kristian Stott (and other guest like Iain McKenzie, Iain White, Verona Frankish, Lee Wainwright, Bryan Mansell et al and I delve into. The statistics I shared aren’t just cold hard numbers, but a narrative of the property market’s rhythm and its reaction to the broader socio-economic landscape. I am also happy for you to use these on your valuations to show you too are a property market expert
For instance, the nuanced analysis of price reductions and sale fall-through rates offer a glimpse into the buyers’ and sellers’ sentiment, and the 10.1% lag in net sales year-to-date compared to the 2017/8/9 average YTD isn’t just a percentage—it’s a reflection of the market’s response to prevailing economic challenges.
Then there is the weekly shift in asking prices, listings, and sales isn’t merely a recitation of numbers but a pulse check on the market, a tool for potential buyers, sellers, and enthusiasts to gauge the right time to make their move.
The beauty of this field lies in its dynamic nature, where each week unfolds a new chapter, sometimes subtle, sometimes dramatic, in the ongoing saga of the UK property market. And each analysis, like the one I provided, is a key to unlock a better understanding of this ever-evolving landscape, so estate Agents can better understand the market and give better advice to the punters
Now, on a lighter note, have you ever considered diving into the exhilarating world of property market analysis? Maybe you could become a guest presenter Gangsta? Your perspective could add a fresh flavour to our weekly discourse. What do you think?
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“Your comment, though laced with a dash of humour, underscores a common underestimation of the meticulous analysis and data interpretation that specialists like Kristian Stott (and other guest like Iain McKenzie, Iain White, Verona Frankish, Lee Wainwright, Bryan Mansell et al and I delve into. ”
So you need 8 people plus to tell you the market is shot ?
“Your comment, though laced with a dash of humour, underscores a common underestimation of the meticulous analysis and data interpretation that specialists like Kristian Stott (and other guest like Iain McKenzie, Iain White, Verona Frankish, Lee Wainwright, Bryan Mansell et al and I delve into. ”
“The beauty of this field lies in its dynamic nature, where each week unfolds a new chapter, sometimes subtle, sometimes dramatic, in the ongoing saga of the UK property market. And each analysis, like the one I provided, is a key to unlock a better understanding of this ever-evolving landscape, so estate Agents can better understand the market and give better advice to the punters”
So it took 8 people to tell you the market is shot?
You hugely overestimate your own imporatnce.
Any good agent knows his own local market.
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If this is the way you see the world and the attitude you have to the people in it then it doesn’t surprise me that you have the spare time to make inane comments on social media. Good grief! @Chris Watkin’s – thank you and keep up the good work. Do you have data on the average time sales are taking? Time taken to sell, lag between sale agreed and completion? The fall through rate is very interesting.
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Thank you for the kind words Mike
You asked for some stats
Time to sell is 61 days in the last 12 months compared to 43 days for the 12
Months before that
Sale agreed to Completion has gone from 124 days year 12 to 24 months ago to 120 days in the last 12 months
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Chris is a top lad. PIE wouldn’t be as good without him.
Some of the other “experts” are as much use as a packet of rubber nails.
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Should do an article on stupid sales tricks by agents.
1, properties that have been on the market for months readvertised after sale agreed as new and then sold to make them look good.
2, £200,000 overpriced in first week then huge reduction week three!!!
Just really silly
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