Zoopla is at “significantly more” risk from Agents’ Mutual than Rightmove, a City analyst said yesterday.
He said that the short-term impact on Zoopla is being under-estimated by investors.
However, William Packer of Exane BNP Paribas went on: “Despite the shorter-term headwinds, we see the incumbents as victors long term.
“Rightmove is our preferred play heading into a noisy 2015.”
The analyst’s report emphasises the point: “We see Rightmove, a strongly managed, high-quality market leader, as best placed to weather any storm … we have a clear preference for Rightmove over Zoopla … we believe Rightmove is better placed due to its clear market leadership. We see Zoopla facing a number of company specific issues and as significantly more exposed to the entrance of Agents’ Mutual.”
The analyst tells investors that Agents’ Mutual will definitely launch as it has gone beyond “the point of no return”.
The report says: “We see the estate agent software market as the next frontier. We identify market leader Property Software Group as an attractive bolt-on acquisition candidate for either Rightmove or Zoopla.”
It expects 2,000 agents to “churn” from the incumbent portals, but adds that the investor market under-estimates the shorter-term impact of the entrance of the Agents’ Mutual portal OnTheMarket.
The report describes Rightmove as being significantly more “must have” for agents but describes Agents’ Mutual as a “credible disruptive new entrant”.
It claims that Zoopla has been offering price freezes and reductions to limit the loss of agents, but is “under the impression that negotiations have proven particularly difficult for Zoopla in certain regions”.
It says Rightmove will continue on its usual pricing trajectory.
The analyst puts Zoopla at neutral, but gives Rightmove an outperform rating, adding that the UK property portal industry is an attractive investment proposition.
BNP Paribas last reported on the property portals market in June. It now says that Agents’ Mutual’s “key gold members have invested sufficient time and money that we now view them as committed to leaving one portal. In our view Rightmove is better placed to weather this disruptive force.”
The report does query whether Agents’ Mutual will succeed on several grounds. While it expects 2,000 agents to desert Rightmove and Zoopla, it says that some Agents’ Mutual members will next year have access to all three platforms while others will not. The report queries how these agents will be “rolled off”.
It also queries whether vendors will accept the new portal.
And it also expects Agents’ Mutual “to struggle to generate an audience comparable to the incumbent portals”.
It’s interesting stuff.
I'm betting 250+ comments!………… so for starters…….. The City also under-estimates the long term strength of OTM…………..So many other "New portal" attempts have failed because they could not gather enough agents to support them nor have the opening stock to entice "buyers and tenants" to return to the site from day one. Interesting times ahead also with the underestimated marketing support the Agents will throw in for free! …………………….If just 2,500 of the member offices advertise a £250 full page ad in the paper in week one of January, that's £625k AM DID NOT have to spend from their budget, where any other portal would have to spend their own money to compete…….AM agents who advertise in the paper now can simple add fillers without increasing spend but getting the message across……..this for me is where the "local power" of leading agents who are on AM will top up the AM marketing fund quite happily within their existing budgets potentially if not extra spend too….. (imagine the above for 2 weeks running £1.25m of paper campaign…with the AM spend on this £ZERO!!!!! …………………….I simply cannot understand why any agent (The Business Owner) would not want to support and back AM and OTM………………………Interesting they also mentioned Agency Software, as I have said already quite some months ago…….AM would be wise to tap into this market ASAP………agents having control over that too would be great!……looking forward to the onslaught…..let the fun begin.
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They need traffic for the site, stock alone won't cut it. Traffic takes time to build even for successful portals. Back in the day Rightmove took around a year to gain any sort of traction from home seekers. I am not sure that Agents who have come off another portal to support OTM will sustain getting no leads from OTM while it finds its feet. Some will however but there will be some losers in this.
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Morning PortalPerson…………………Back in the day the whole and entire idea of a "property portal" was still fresh…….. you can't compare RM back then to the tech savvy public of today……..surely PortalPerson you get this……or you are quite young and do not remember the industry going "online"…… it was actually the "online" which took a while to settle in with most traditional house hunters back then with many NOT being very computer savvy or indeed having access to the web…………………..so no, I do not accept that…..I'm not saying overnight success BUT this will be a touch quicker than what RM was, based on the pure and simple change in the way the public look for houses and the fact ALL agents have come to terms with embracing the internet……..You are right some companies may not be strong enough to see this through and they for me are the ones who simply rely too heavily on Z and or RM now, the strong agents who truly believe in their company will make it work………………time will tell as will analytics no doubt….but comparing the launch of a property website in 2014 to that of one 2000 is simply no good.
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Ric. ALL websites take time to gain traction, now more than ever… Things are not as fresh anymore and they have to rise to the top of the pile to stand out. This is as true now as it was in the year 2000, more so due to the fact of no real serious competition to RM back in the day. Your points are correct, they are just inverse
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Ric, its the otherway around. Where do you go to compare your mortgage ? Go compare, comparethemarket, moneysupermarket etc etc . Its harder now than it ever was to gain traction amongst the "tech savvy" public. You need a massive amount of money to make the public see things over and over again before it stick .The most interesting thing is that Google is one of the main generators for visits.If you type in on the market the search term in competing against dictionary.com as its a phrase and the London Stock exchange . Google rank both of thee businesses as 9/10 page importance meaning it highly unlikely OTM will gain traction on its own search term. Monumental error…
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Hi Danny…………. I get your point about it takes time to gain traction………………..Forgive me, I am not huge on some of the techy stuff mentioned here so you have lost me slightly……genuinely lost, not trying to be smart….. Do you mean if people are to type in just "On the market" it will never or can never return the score worth of gaining the traction or OTM have simply not done something to make this possible? …………………. PortalPerson, I see what you are saying!
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Oh and a PS sorry PortalPerson…………You keep talking about property portals and saying Stock will not make it……its a bit chicken and egg I know……… but really the past problems other "emerging portals" have had is "not having the stock" don't think of the marketing on a national level…..(if you are) think of each village telling its homeowners where to look………the local level advertising power of AM is what no other property portal has had before…….AM will not need a pot as big as the other 2, similar to me not needing a pot as big as my corporate agents around me……..yet I toy with them on a daily basis……
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There are plenty of portals with plenty of stock yet they don't have traction. It's hard to compare RM to the likes of NeedAProperty due to Rightmove (Cleverly) recently changing the number of results found for searches… Now it just says "1000+" when searches are to wide. Zoopla have roughly 30% more stock than NeedAProperty yet Zoopla are a lot more successful than NeedAProperty and why is that… I'll explain why. Zoopla realising that they could not hit the ground running and in desparate need of traffic decided to buy up a load of smaller portals and traffic from various other sources thus generating the traction they needed. This still took over a year to accomplish and they had HIGHLY targeted traffic from other portals and sources that actually wanted to find property. Believe me when I tell you that I've been doing what I do for a very very long time, I know how the internet, it's traffic and marketing on the internet works to the macro scale and I am telling you with absolute certainty that stock alone is not enough to gain traction quickly. I have built, launched and maintained many many high traffic large websites including property portals which all had stock and they all had massive marketing budgets yet they still took time to flourish. OTM can force agents to choose two of three portals all they like but they can't force the public to visit a website they don't know about or infact interact with that website once they do. All of you fanboys are in for a shock if you think come January all of your prayers are answered with the new messiah you call OTM. They have a very long and hard journey to make the other side of the business work which is getting and RETAINING the traffic. IF they believe that the traffic will come then they are very naive and need to employ someone who knows what they're doing.
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Some fair points Ric, however…"If just 2,500 of the member offices advertise a £250 full page ad in the paper in week one of January, that's £625k AM DID NOT" – we both know that this simply won't happen. Also, those agents that do pro-actively advertise AM will effectively (once rival agents spread the word) be advertising themselves as offering their clients' properties a lower profile than those on RM & Z, this in my mind is therefore an inherent problem, not a positive.
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Possibly, but for me Rivero its the name awareness of the OTM brand which will be the adverts point…… and therefore the advert will not say "only see our properties on OTM" it will be more "the new website, take a look in addition to the usual brilliance we offer visit OTM bla bla" I will still be on RM…………….and AM agents will no doubt keep the most popular "other" portal so they too will be protected from this (hence the "drop one rule" not "drop both"……….however……….I still like many remain concerned about whether the website will be GREAT or OK…..and fear just some of the big boys/girls in London are getting to see the development…………………Again though and I am sorry to keep saying it…….I tell people "I will take you off Z for your benefit" and they agree, so even though my competitors some AM members use Z against me it just does not work.
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"once rival agents spread the word"…..Really…..Well that's just great….you and the other rivals preach "negativity of agents using OTM" Whilst OTM agents preach the "BENEFITS of OTM" I think you will find that negativity against other agents has never worked. If I were you I would be saying how great you think Zoopla and Rightmove are rather than slagging the opposition. Whilst you are doing that, and happily uploading your great properties onto these portals REMEMBER that every applicant in your area that registers for information on YOUR great props are being sold to your (maybe wealthier) rivals by the portals you pay. Oh, and let's not forget that they call themselves partners to 1000's of companies that say they can do the same job as you for £69+vat….I can see you are passionately against OTM – but, for the life of me I can't understand why any pro agent doesn't want to try and protect / control their future….I'm baffled by that.
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"I think you will find that negativity against other agents has never worked. If I were you I would be saying how great you think Zoopla and Rightmove are rather than slagging the opposition." and our agency has never engaged in such practice and nowhere have I suggested that we do or would. We have over 10 offices which are all the market leader in their areas, we never have and never will engage in 'doing-down' the competition. I am simply pointing out what I see are the flaws in the model amongst fellow agents…I realise this is a source of annoyance to many but I see it as stimulating a necessary debate. "Oh, and let's not forget that they call themselves partners to 1000's of companies that say they can do the same job as you for £69+vat" You see this just doesn't really bother me. BA didn't stop advertising with ITV when Easyjet did, or Tesco when Aldi did. I see Rightmove as a necessary advertising platform. If we as agents can't justify to our potential clients why we are worth our fee over the low cost models then we are in serious trouble anyway.
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So you are happy that Rightmove sell your applicants to your rivals for cash? (probably the same rivals that you feel you can justify your worth over) How can you justify your worth if Rightmove sell your local applicants/would be vendors to other lesser agents in your area who are then contacted by them and told by them that you overcharge and they can do the same job for a fraction of the price?
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But they are not selling 'my' applicants or 'my' data, they are selling data they have collected by users registering with their website. Obviously I would prefer this not to happen but I don't see it is any different from a rival paying a local paper to advertise 10 pages to my 2 for instance…the readers are not 'my' readers they are simply readers, and we can choose to spend as much or as little to target them as we like/can afford.
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Rivero…not a good analogy at all….yes a paper can sell more pages to one agent and less to you. But YOU get the calls for YOUR properties you have advertised in the paper. What if the paper had a Freephone number and they took the calls and passed them to you….but also sold your leads directly to your competitor, immediately…for cash? You still think that would be acceptable?
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I wouldn't be happy about it no, although if the newspapers were to do that they would ironically probably face a brighter future.
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Maybe rivero……but it would again be at your expense.
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"It expects 2000 agents to desert rightmove and Zoopla"…..is this analyst talking about 2000 agents(companies) or 2000 branches?
Also why has not one analyst yet mentioned the dissatisfaction withe the current duopoly, the co branding and resolve amongst estate agents. It is as though they see onthemarket as just another portal, which we al know not is not.
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Morning Paul H, not sure they get it at all……I think you've hit the nail on the head……..it's just another portal in their mind.
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But it is "just another portal" until it's not. How is this not obvious? This whole thing can quite easily blow up in their faces. There are many many other FAILED businesses in other industries that were going to be the "Next Big Thing" and within 6 months they withered and died, not through any fault except no traction and poor decisions.
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For me the big thing PortalPerson which you perhaps don't see or hear is the chance to "put up" or "shut up"………………………………. For SO SO long agents have moaned and complained about RM charges increasing……especially and more so in the BAD market which one day will return as cycles do! So when it does the moaners will moan again "it's not fair" and this is our last real chance to taken control of a part of our industry which in fairness WE make work………………………… If it fails, I only have RM to worry about as I do now so no real biggie………………. if it works, I hopefully have just OTM on my side on day in the near future………(please don't jump on the If''s…it WILL work) so for me, we have decided to "put up" and support this…..and why not?…….if I am out of pocket at the end of this because it does not work, I am out of pocket with the knowledge on the next round of "its not fair" I can say its the fault of those who talk a lot and did not put up……and one thing I can bet on is…….there are moaners out there NOW who are not supporting AM but still moan about RMZ ….these are many of the fence sitters (not all) as I get some concerns…
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I agree it's time to put up or shut up, I just think or rather know that come January they will be moaning that they have dropped X OR Y and now have no leads… how is this different from taking your stock from portals completely and marketing property in a cheaper way? because that IS the only way that agencies will take back the power – pure and simple
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Morning Ric. I'm looking forward to these analysts being proven wrong as we know they will.
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Hi Paul, absolutely.
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"It is as though they see onthemarket as just another portal, which we al know not is not." But don't you see, in the eyes of the potential customer and therefore the market it IS just another portal. The only point of difference is that Estate Agents are invested in this portal, something I expect members of the public to be suspicious of rather than see as a mark of quality. The fact invested agents have seen the growth of support behind the scenes, or that they feel it is important to their businesses long term to wrestle back some control over the portals doesn't make a bit of difference to the customer and therefore won't inform their behaviour – this for me is what it keeps coming back to. You all see it as some kind of revolution, the public will see it as another portal, but with fewer properties on it than RM & Z, why do you think they will see it any other way?
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Spinning this a touch…….. so in July 2015 we now have RMZOTM – Would/will those none OTM supporters be forced potentially to join it, when the RMZOTM agents "sell against" the fact they are not on it?
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But you can't be on all 3?
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No! but what if we have AM members on OTM and do not drop Z or RM? What will be then…….Again I am not too fussed as I am off Z anyway…..but I hear the odd AM member saying we will wait to see which others come off before dropping one….which means there will be a period of time where you have agents on all 3 surely…..and their target driven managers saying "we are on RM, Z and OTM" …………………………meaning for how long will those who think being on 2 portals now is vital to their success will be thinking oh no, I'm loosing houses because they are on 3 sites and I am not…….will OTM allow this to their advantage……….?
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Well if OTM does allow that situation it will have well and truly 'turned over' the industry, and presumably be in breach of every one of it's contracts.
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I could launch a brand new petrol retailing company tomorrow, without any advertising whatsoever, and completely corner the market if I was the only one selling petrol. Drivers would flock to me from miles around, not because they like me or my brand, but because I am the only one who can sell them fuel.
They won't continue to drive along to their nearest Esso garage just because they know how to get there, or because they sell a wide array of confectionary. They'll abandon them in a heart beat because they can no longer offer them the service they want.
As soon as agents sum up the courage to remove their stock from the people in the advertising business and give it back to those of us in the property business, the public will soon follow.
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Shaun77, you are obviously nuts, that's far too simple and obvious, that it's got to be a lie!!
Are you suggesting the public would find their way to you?
Surely when they go to ZOOPLA and RM and find only a handful of properties available, they will abandon their property search, assume Armageddon has arrived and go hide under their beds?
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"Surely when they go to ZOOPLA and RM and find only a handful of properties available" – cause that's REALLY going to happen.
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It would if the industry grew a pair, Rivero?
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Post by Ric "…………………….I simply cannot understand why any agent (The Business Owner) would not want to support and back AM and OTM………………………"
I have been a supported of OTM/AM from day 1…but…as time has passed by with little in the way of marketing or teaser campaigns I have become increasingly concerned. In response to Rics comment, the reason that I may end up sitting on the fence is that, based on my own research, every one of my main competitors is sticking with Rightzoop. As a business owner, how can I, in good conscience, give my competitors such and advantage in the vital first quarter of a new year?
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Hi Phoenix! I have had the very same concern about the possibility of 3 portals being left – BUT for the fact and this is perhaps specific to me and any other in a similar position……. I have NEVER relied on both portals ie RM and Z……..I have a market leading company without Z…… so in theory we will actually be stronger with the launch of OTM …….. RM I hope will become a Z for me and I can chose to drop off it without concern one day……at present I said this a week or so ago, I would not come off RM yet, because like you I need to know how good OTM will be!…. I raised the same point about RMZOTM being the end product at a meeting last week with other agents and everyone seemed to be quite sure one of the 2 would be dropped……I understand your concern….which is why I have said before the agents who rely on RMZ now will find this the hardest….. Z is rubbish though, so I just don't get why any agent cannot sell against Z as long as you are on RM.
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The reality of this is that it is all about the agents – at last. If agents support OTM (and what possible reason is there not to) then it will succeed in the same way as Realtor.com does in USA. A very different market place, very different setup but still the same principle. A portal run by Real Estate Agents for Real Estate Agents. I just cannot see any possible reason for ANY estate agent could possible want to continue with RM, let alone Z.
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We have built into our business plan an expectation of having to stay with RM for 1/2 years in parallel with OTM, until, hopefully, OTM, led by agents, becomes the leading portal.
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Whilst the consumer has enough choice of property on RM or Z they will still go to those sites as those are the brands they know. If OTM only has say 30% of the stock in any given area it will ultimately provide a disappointing experience for the consumer as they won't have the choice that they are looking for. In my view this is the danger for OTM by Agents not grasping the mettle and leaving both of the leading portals. The consumer will go to where the stock is, if it's only on OTM then 'job done'. If, for example, most stock is still on RM post January then that's where the consumer will continue to go.
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Sorry thought I would ask an opinion on this as a separate comment instead so spinning this a touch…….. Let say in JUL 2015 we do now have RMZOTM – ……………..would/will those not on OTM feel forced to potentially join OTM, as the RMZOTM agents at this point will "sell against" the fact they are not on it?…………would any non OTM agents be concerned not being on all three will now hinder them…..?
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I don't believe that customers are as influenced by where estate agents advertise their property. In all the years I have been valuing I would say I have never lost a property to another agent because at the time I was on one portal and they were on two. I have been running a survey of my customers all year and the results have been interesting. 58.8% of my clients chose us because they had dealt with us before or had been recommended, 24.4% of my customers selected us because of my having an office close to their location, 12.5% chose us because of boards in their roads and the rest through a combination of local advertising and visibility on portals. My costs for the latter being equivalent to the rent of three offices annually. Portal advertising compliments my database of buyers, it isn't, or will ever be, the only source of providing it. Therefore no, not being on all three won't hinder me, being on two with a view to only being on one in a few years is exactly the way I hope to go.
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RealAgent: That's the first good comment I've seen all day. Vendors only care their house sells and it's on at least ONE major portal, they could care less where you advertise it. If they were to get involved and start telling you how to do your job then you can't do your job effectively ergo they just leave you to it which is the right thing to do.
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Totally agree….. one portal is plenty….albeit I will have to suffer 2 from January to end up with the one I want………. PortalPerson…….you know you like all my comments……and you know you will be house hunting on OTM come January……..go on…..admit it.
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I agree with this article in that I too believe that Zoopla will suffer the largest fall out. Most agents operated successfully using just Rightmove for online enquiries before Z came along. Although this isn't the case everywhere I am sure, it certainly is with the agents I have spoken to. What I disagree with is the short term only gain. I actually think it will be the other way. A number of agents are sat on the fence with regard to OTM, they would perhaps like to support it but it's a leap of faith. It is also a tougher decision for those agents only currently advertising on one portal as it means an increase in costs. However if it picks up traction then almost certainly agents will follow. Personally, I think this is already the nearest to an industry lead collective support I believe I have ever seen (perhaps only secondary to SPLINTA eh Nick?!) and I can't ever see the industry becoming this close to having control of its data, yet still serving its customers interests as well, ever again. There will always be questions about a new entrants long term success, but with a whole industry being held to ransom by two public listed and shareholder profit driven portals, I hope those sat on the fence see that their future is better served supporting something that they benefit from than merely supporting one that they surely won't.
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As of yesterday, Rightmove has purchased 30,831,067 of its own shares since announcing a share buy-back programme on 28 December 2007. The price must have averaged between £10 and £20 per share, probably at the upper end. That's a lot of money to syphon out of the industry: all money that agents have handed over.
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I wish I'd written that real agent.
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This analyst is BANG on the money…..He seems to have cut and pasted my comments from this forum! So…..Mr Analyst ……here is what will happen in a year or so after launch…….You will then have to tell people that the shareholder owned portals are a SELL due to the impact of OTM's first year being so successful….Agents will NOT tolerate Rightmove selling their applicants to all and sundry (did you know Haart have just given RM a significant payment to send an e mail to all registered applicants throughout the country-some of which will have registered for YOUR properties- which states as the title "free valuation from a Rightmove partner"!!!) They will continue to undermine their own members and this will prove their downfall. Both the shareholder sites will become saturated by 3rd party listers charging £50 a pop to re list photos that the owner has taken on their old Nokia …They will become a total mess…..and the public will turn to On The Market, as more and more agents turn to on the market……And Mr Analyst….."you can quote me on this"
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No-one can criticise your imagination Wilko.
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Has anyone told these analysts that it is the paying customers of rightmove and Zoopla that are plotting their downfall. I'm genuinely amazed that they ignore this very important fact.
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The report describes Rightmove as being significantly more “must have” for agents but describes Agents’ Mutual as a “credible disruptive new entrant”……
I totally disagree with the whole idea of multi agent web portals. The industry would be better off without any of them, period. All an agent needs is his own web site now before I'm jumped on lets gets some basics. A business needs to be in control ie the agent, not the web portal. The web portal has only ever been a reactive , wait and see model. It is of no use to anyone who doesn't use the internet (yes there are many and growing), why would a business want to advertise his competitors products in amongst his own (suicide, but accepted bad practice in estate agency), why would a business allow another business to destroy much of his work with cross selling and in the case of Zoopla & RM sales history and inaccurate property valuations …. I could go on then. The internet revolution was back in the 1990's and decades latter the industry is so blinkered in the web it has lost it way. Just look at Direct Line and how successful they are, and any other industry for that matter, do they advertise their competitors products…… no way. Z & RM as will AM only survive if agents keep feeding them and continue to loose control of their business. Do away with them all, get your own web site. Customers will follow you, your mailing lists will jump considerably, you sales will go up as long as you put the effort in and don't sit back waiting for someone to switch on the computer.
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Hi Woodentop. This is interesting…are you an estate agent? If so, have you done away with both RM & Z? If so, when and what has been the effect (if any) on your business?
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Hi Woodentop…………….I was thinking the same as Rivero!……. In an ideal world fantastic idea….BUT if there was no one-stop-property-portal I would make one and milk it, just as RM have. The concept is simply too strong and it is a great tool for buyers and sellers…………its how the monster we have created behaves is the issue here!
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Yes I am and very successful to. You are correct the issue is the monster we have created and the dilemma we now face. Who has the guts to quit or continue to with a model which has some serious issues for a business but perceived to be the holy grail. The answer to the other question (try and keep it short) yes the only local independent agent to be on RM back in its beginning, most other didn't follow till after 2004 and none had their own web site which was the opening that created RM. We were the same with Zoopla when they started. We ditched both of them as in the beginning they were of no use or presence and we had own site up and running in the 1990's and still have …. which RM and copied years later! We HAD to go back on RM & later Z as their presence had grown and we were being hammered by our competitors running us down on instructions who by this time had all gone onto one or both sites. However we ran it long enough to shut them up and then came off (twice done this on both web portals) and each time our mailing list rocketed and our sales increased. Currently we are on RM (will never go back to Z) due to new agent hitting the market and "the have to be on scenario" came up again. So short sighted. Now as time as progressed we are able to hit back with potential and current sellers …….. "how long have you been on Z or RM and it hasn't sold your property has it and I'll tell you why Mr Vendor". The vendors needed history to see who's telling the truth and that history is now my allies. The independent agents in my area all agreed to come off RM two years ago. Only one did, guess who and the issue is, the others talk the talk but not the walk. Agents in general live in fear of "if's & but's" and take an easy option. They forget not all sellers and landlords will choose them, corporates want all the market for themselves but have never ever succeeded and never will. Identify your own market share and work at it, you will succeed if you get of your backsides. Agents always used to, what's changed ….. nothing? Web portals are a tool to your business and you should use it to your advantage and game plan after all it is only an electronic newspaper 24/7 which has manipulated the system to it's own financial advantage and thinks it is providing a service to buyers and tenants just as it likes, when it's customer are actually the agent and detrimental to their business.
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You don't need to read very far into the report to get to this bit…
Our communication with our network of industry contacts suggests Rightmove is significantly more ‘must-have’ for agents, a key advantage in a year where a credible, disruptive new entrant is arriving.
Fortunately for the intended recipients of the report will be ignorant of the industry landscape and therefore won't realise those claiming AM to be credible and disruptive are those who are hoping it will be. That one sentence robs the report of all credibility.
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Benay, this is an analyst reporting on Rightmove and Zoopla. Their advice is RM is Outperform and Zoopla is Neutral?
They do not see AM as a threat to RM, but to Zoopla.
It says Rightmove will continue on its usual pricing trajectory.
The analyst puts Zoopla at neutral, but gives Rightmove an outperform rating, adding that the UK property portal industry is an attractive investment proposition.
If the intention was to push the AM agenda, they haven't done it very well.
I think it will take a bit more than a few pro AM members / fans to move a market!
Millions rest on this type of stuff and people look at it all very closely. That's why there are analyst and why people deal in fundamentals.
If AM isn't a credible and disruptive new entrant, then it wouldn't be getting so much air time in the city and Zoopla wouldn't be put as a neutral and share prices wouldn't be moving in the wrong direction. There is more at work here than the flag waving "AM Collective" as some would have us believe.
All this is happening and OTM hasn't even launched yet?
What robs this report of all credibility is the stuff they don't advise their clients about, i.e. that AM is owned by the agents and more importantly that RM and Zoopla make their money from agents that supply them with the details of the properties, they win from their own clients, WITHOUT WHICH RM & ZOOPLA DONT HAVE A BUSINESS.
But if they did that, that would have to explain why they had RM in as Outperform!
Simple solutions.
Keep giving your money to RM so they can make £100m a year out of you without appreciating their number 1 asset, which is US.
Just to put it into perspective, RM has a £2.1 billion market cap!!!!
Or take more control of how the stock that we have worked hard to win is promoted and take more control on a portal that we own and for one week a year, you can go on holiday rather than deal with an RM / ZP rep telling you why you need to sign up again for more money, with extras you didn't want but all of your competitors now have!
If people run their business on the basis that being on RM and Zoopla will make or break you, you are in the wrong business. If you think your competition coming off RM and Zoopla will help you, there is no hope for you.
It's that mentality that makes people think they are killing the opposition because they are doing it for 1% while other are stupidly holding out for 2% and 1.75%, not realising their competitors are making twice the money for half the work and the really good ones are taking on more at more money and really smashing it!
I digress!!
Our clients want their properties sold, at the best price and with great service along the way.
That's what your clients employ you for and not as some think, because you will put their property on RM or Zoopla.
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Well said Paul, some very good points in particular your last sentence is what agents need to get into their heads. They need to sit down and think why they have been chosen for the valuation in the first place and react accordingly, some will be web orientated but they may be surprised how many aren't if they ask the question. Unless the majority of agents ditch multi-agents web portal together, nothing is going to change. It is unlikely to happen but the best web player will survive and currently RM look to be out in front but they are afraid AM may be the dark horse that wins and it will if agents get their act together and AM delivers a good and reliable service.
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Sorry Paul I haven't made the point very well. Who do you think their network of Industry contacts are? More than likely if they are not the core AM members they will, no doubt, be contacts who are close to core members. From the figures discussed and presented by the likes of Rivero sub 15% of branches in AM isn't yet viable. Even if 4000 branches are reached there is considerable informed debate whether 20% is anything more than a niche portal to replace Primelocation.
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Hi Benay, thanks for clearing that up, I was slightly confused by the comment.
No doubt there are industry observers, specialists in this and that, that they will go to, but I agree, there isn't much point in asking industry contacts with a vested interest.
It's no surprise that RM would be their pick, but I doubt they really needed to contact all of their network to figure that one out!
My point was that whoever they are asking are pointing towards RM being the more resilient, so they either haven't spoken to anyone with an interest in AM or they are not listening / doing a good job of understanding the concept.
If they had spoken to someone with an interest, they would have told them that agents are growing tired of having RM and Zoopla biting the hands that feed them.
Everyone can band a % around but the simple facts are the people in our industry can make a change. There are a lots of agents keeping things close to their chest and a lot more still undecided.
We don't need to know the %, we need people to take action, because if they don't, it won't happen.
I'm not blind to what is needed, I'm frustrated by people that don't have the conviction to change and bring about change. Frustrated that they can't see this is in their hands, frustrated that they could potentially miss the only opportunity to take control.
If people put more effort into galvanising the industry instead of telling everyone it won't work, we might get somewhere.
If it doesn't work all the anti AM crowed can come on here and shout I told you so. So well done to you, but what have you achieved today? The answer will be nothing.
Whatever your concerns the only thing that is certain is we can't do without buy in from all.
Let me make one thing clear, I don't NEED AM to succeed, I WANT it to succeed. If it crashes and burns my business will continue to flourish as I continue to evolve it and continue to take a different approach than my peers. Unlike my business where I can control the variables, I can't control getting AM off the ground, I need to work with these same peers on that one and therein lies the problem my friends!
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Okay, this is sort of for all of us here, hands up who remembers an EA industry website where we and others used to post loads of the stuff like we do here, engaged with people outside the business that liked it because it was an open forum (@sibley's******* child & rant'n'rave where the **** are you boys!?) had good banter, full on rows and fistycuffs and generally got to the meat and potatoes of all sorts of stuff in the end?…………..anyway the this little place opened up, no fanfare, no PR budget and all that and what happened? – well it was the place that had all the above, I think our mate @portalperson calls it content?? and here we all are, the old place has little to look at this one seems to be the place to come and here we all are – the EA world had one site to do this stuff on and then a second one opened up and whoosh, we all came here and the old one has become all bit…..well lacking 'content' – so my point is web users like content, over night http://www.onthemarket.co.uk will be one of the biggest places for property and more than that a place where agents actually upload it and direct consumers to and promote so consumers will go there – Jonnie
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Jonnie, there is a story currently in that 'other place' questioning the ownership of the domain names for 'on the market', Owned apparently by a company called Vespa Capital Partners Ltd, who it seems are denying any current link with the private equity firm of the same name, but it appears they actually have the same directors. Just makes you wonder why the domain names for what is supposed to be a member run mutual are owned by a private equity firm.
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Oh, and should have said, the reason Eye took off and EAT is floundering is probably more down to a personal following for Ros, so quite a different situation.
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Hound, fair points mate. Lets do it another way, just for the **** of it – lets say http://www.onthemarket.co.uk gets launched in January, all the agents on it on that day start promoting it as the place to go, start sending links from it on mailouts, stickers in windows, press stuff, logos on ads, editorials, leaflet campaigns and all the stuff us lot old enough to remember did with RM back in the day…..and obviously upload stock and all that combined with a sensible reason why Z is not relevant to the consumers that have been told its the be all and end all (lets face it RM aren't going to be the one we all drop- are you telling me it wont fly? – Jonnie
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Good point Jonnie, I don't understand the fact that there are people that don't get the concept of turning off the tap on one portal, then using an army of agents up and down the country to advertise it, point people to it. How can they deny it won't have an impact. If no one joins in, that's the only thing that will have an impact?!
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So just to confirm that this analyst is “expects 2,000 agents to churn from the incumbent portals”….It is not clear if the analyst means 2,000 branches or 2,000 companies, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he is making his findings based on 2,000 companies and not branches, if so then what if there are more than 2,000, in fact what if more have already signed up (there were 1500 companies as of 1st August). Why did the analyst not also give an opinion based on a higher amount of sign-ups, why only 2,000, how does he know there will be 2,000 sign ups?! I think a new report may need to be issued within the next few months.
In other news as of 4pm today Zoopla’s share price has dropped by a further 4% and is now worth only £7.40 more than its original launch price.
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"Why did the analyst not also give an opinion based on a higher amount of sign-ups, why only 2,000, how does he know there will be 2,000 sign ups?!" He doesn't know, he "expects"…it is a projection no doubt based on the 'real' numbers not the make believe ones. I expect he's done some research and actually requested the accurate membership figures from AM.
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"it is a projection no doubt based on the 'real' numbers not the make believe ones. I expect he's done some research and actually requested the accurate membership figures from AM."….If that is the case then was this pointed out in the report and if not why not. I've got to say that the negligence shown by some of these analysts (in some cases) are bordering on criminal and based on sheer guess work.
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I agree it would be foolish for anyone to simply guess at that numbers Paul H.
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I agree, maybe his making them up?!
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Well I've emailed him to ask him so I'll update you should he reply…although you won't believe me anyway
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I think many agents have lost the focus that we had prior Internet. Then we used media to build our Mailing Lists (now data bases) and we were proactive, got of are our rears and sold. We use RM to generate an enquiry which we then work with on a one to one. There should be no need for that potential buyer to have to continually trawl the Internet to find one of our New Instructions. To many rely to much on the large websites because they then don't have to work hard on their own. Most vendors that have gone to one of your competitors to sell their property will most probably have rung your office – obviously they didn't get the right experience. While so many agents still consider that RM or Z and offering the lowest fees are the way to win instructions we may as well hand over our industry to the Internet only agents tomorrow. Why are we so afraid of ditching one while trying to promote one that we have a vested interest in.
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crooki, oh so very true and I'm now on my second pot of coffee.
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Hold on stop the press….on page 12 the analyst claims that his projected figures are based on 2000 "agent offices"……now either it's a typo or the guy has made a monumental mistake?
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I would make two points…1. Remember he is talking about 'churn' so his numbers presumably won't include agent offices which are not 'dropping' another portal. 2. I still find it unbelievable that you continue to question other people's figures on this point when they have clearly either asked (in my case very recently) or researched (in PNB's case), when you yourself have no real idea what the figures are other than based on the wildly inaccurate figures given to you by an AM rep 3-4 months ago! It's laughable that you have the audacity to do it to be honest.
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"I still find it unbelievable that you continue to question other people's figures on this point when they have clearly either asked (in my case very recently) or researched"….Well actually he has asked and says the following…."We note that following our most recent conversations with Agents’ Mutual partners, they have suggested they will spend GBP15m in 2015 if they successfully garner 5,000 member offices. We see this as unlikely" he then goes on to say….."At launch, Agents’ Mutual inventory will be restricted to its c.2,000-3,000
members."..He earlier states that he estimates there will be 2000 gold members and 1000 silver. In other words he completely dismisses Agents Mutuals advice that there will be 5000 at launch and instead bases his figures on his guess of their being only 2000 gold members. Of course on the 25th September you said the following….. "I spoke again with an Agents Mutual BDC yesterday and asked for the bang up to date Gold member office figures. As of 24th September they are as follows: Gold 1 = 1825, Gold 2 = 495, Gold 3 = 51."…So even if your figures are correct he is basing his figures on incorrect information, as surely if you can get these numbers then so can this analyst, No?! The whole report is based on ill advised guess work and in my opinion shows complete negligence on the part of the analyst.
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I would say, in my opinion, this report is the most likely and therefore accurate analysis of the forthcoming entry of OTM and longer term scenario. I'm not arguing the semantics of the figures in the report with you because you have no credibility yourself in that regard. If he has estimated then I would agree he might have been better placed to get up to date figures, however clearly he is right to ignore the wildly optimistic projections of AM. Ultimately we will see, however it is nice to read opinion on this subject from someone not blind-sided by sentiment or emotion.
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So you state….."I would say, in my opinion, this report is the most likely and therefore accurate analysis of the forthcoming entry of OTM and longer term scenario."….and then go on to say….."If he has estimated then I would agree he might have been better placed to get up to date figures"….Erm so which is it then an accurate analysis or not accurate due to not getting up to date figures?!…"I'm not arguing the semantics of the figures in the report with you because you have no credibility yourself in that regard"…Good to see your in a jovial mood again today Rivero but the it is your middle name…"however clearly he is right to ignore the wildly optimistic projections of AM"….You mean negligent?!"Ultimately we will see, however it is nice to read opinion on this subject from someone not blind-sided by sentiment or emotion."….Like you, you mean?!
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Well I'm sure the investors will see the report for what it is and come to this comments section for your insightful and unbiased analysis of the situation. (Oh you're right I do feel jovial!)
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