The UK has now come out of the difficult period caused by September’s disastrous mini-budget, according to Anthony Codling, CEO of property platform Twindig.

In conversation with Iain McKenzie, CEO of the Guild of Property Professionals, Codling summarised the upheaval caused in the mortgage market following the so-called Growth Plan delivered by former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

“The unpredictability in the market meant that many mortgage providers were not comfortable with the level of risk they would potentially take on, resulting in many products being withdrawn from the market,” he explained.

“At the start of the year, a two-year swap rate was 1.19%, it was 1.6% in February and by August, following a few consecutive rate hikes, it was 2.7%. On 22 September, the rate was at 4.7%, then 5.4%, and by 27 September it was 6%. Right now, it is back down to 4.5% following the autumn statement.”

Codling believes the situation is now under control because there is “relative certainty” that the Bank of England will be allowed to take the necessary measures to control inflation. “It is believed that inflation will start to ease and will be in low single digits by the end of next year,” he said. “This will be a result of the BoE continuing to increase rates, as well as the initial shock of the war in Ukraine and impact on the markets subsiding.

“Prices have leapt up, but hopefully we will see that trajectory ease. Once an increase is a year old, we would usually see the rate of change slow down,” he added.

On the subject of house prices, Codling said: “The price growth has been remarkable in the past year and a half. If a homeowner didn’t move during that time, they would be sitting on big equity gains. So, in theory, if we lost all those pandemic gains and house prices fell over 20%, most people would just be back to where they started at the beginning of lockdown.

“At the beginning of lockdown, most people thought house price growth would be flat in a best-case scenario, never mind seeing them go up at the fastest rate in history. So, there is a lot of people who have seen the value of their asset increase significantly.”