The Bank of England could move more aggressively to lower borrowing costs; good news for mortgage borrowers.
The Bank will cut interest rates from the existing level of 5% down to 2.75% next year, predicts Goldman Sachs.
The Wall Street investment bank expects monetary policy to catch up with lower inflation.
Goldman Sachs analysts said that interest rates are “notably restrictive” at the present level of 5% and will decline to 2.75% by November 2025.
The move is much faster than the pace priced in by money markets, which suggest the Bank Rate will drop to 3.5% over the next year.
Inflation in Britain fell faster than expected in September to 1.7%, following comments from governor Andrew Bailey that rate setters on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would become “more aggressive” about reducing borrowing costs.
Goldman Sachs said interest rates would fall to lower than the levels priced in by money markets amid “rapidly falling inflation and dovish MPC commentary”.
The news would be a welcome boost to mortgage borrowers, who have faced a sharp rise in costs after interest rates were raised to 5.25% to combat inflation which surged to 11.1% in October 2022.
If Goldman’s prediction is correct, it would mean the Bank of England would make consecutive quarter of a percentage point interest rate cuts at each of its next nine meetings.
Hopes of a double interest rate cut before Christmas boosted as inflation falls to 1.7%
Dear god, please no!
For the economy to work properly for everyone you need a gap between the inflation rate, the savings rate and the borrowing rate.
If the government “target” for inflation is 2% then the savings rate needs to be somewhere in the region of 3-4% and the borrowing rate 4-5%.
Having the borrowing rate at inflation plus a tiny bit means that everything is topsy-turvey.
And, very interestingly, those with assets and with the ability to take advantage of the low borrowing rate gain very significantly from this upside-down arrangement.
The rest of us, who can’t take advantage, really lose out.
The rich will just get richer.
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