The number of homes for sale has hit a 15-year low, estate agents claim. Meanwhile Nationwide this morning claimed that house prices had fallen for a second consecutive month – although this was on a ‘seasonally adjusted’ basis. Without seasonal adjustment, house prices actually crept up to stand at £207,699 in April, compared with £207,308 in March.
The startling figure from the NAEA Propertymark Housing Report for March is somewhat tempered by the relatively small sample size of just 554 branches who responded to the survey.
Additionally, there is no regional breakdown among agents.
The report found that the number of properties available to buy on member estate agents’ books decreased to 39 in March from 44 in February.
This figure is the lowest amount recorded for March since the trade body started recording the data in September 2002.
Agents had 54 properties available to market in March 2016.
The number of buyers registered per member branch also fell, according to the report, from 425 in February to 397 last month.
In March last year there were 417 prospective buyers registered per branch, meaning demand has fallen by 5% year-on-year.
There was some good news in the first-time buyer market where the proportion of sales rose to 25%, after falling from 30% to 22% between January and February.
However, overall the average number of sales agreed decreased in March to ten per branch from a record high of 11 in February.
Mark Hayward, chief executive of NAEA Propertymark, said: “There are currently ten house-hunters chasing each available property, and with supply at the lowest level for March since records began, building more homes to satisfy demand needs to be a priority.
“In line with this, while sales to first-time buyers rose slightly in March, they’re still much lower than the levels seen in the last three months of 2016 which is cause for concern.
“The upcoming General Election is a good opportunity for each party to outline their plans for tackling the housing crisis.
“We hope to see it prioritised so we can make the market a better place once and for all.”
Nationwide economist Robert Gardner said of the ‘seasonally adjusted’ monthly fall in house prices of 0.4% that it could be an indication of a squeeze in incomes.
He said that this, together with mounting housing affordability pressures, “is likely to exert a drag on activity and house price growth in the quarters ahead.”
Prima facie evidence that there are people given a soapbox who don’t understand what they are commentating on.
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What do governments do when they create uncertainty, they stop people getting on with their lives. Many would be home sellers are probably taking a ‘I’ll wait and see what happens in the election’ attitude.
We’ve also noticed that when we sell a house our vendor is then struggling to find anywhere to move to!!!
lack of stock is becoming self fulfilling.
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Doesn’t bode well for budget model agents who need stock volume just to break even…. mentioning no names but lets see how they spin it when the next accounts are declared to shareholders.
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It also explains why a daft competitor of mine put a touting slip saying “I know why your house hasn’t sold, please call me because I am a …………….” through one of my clients’ doors after just one day of marketing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Desperate fool……
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April 28:
“The number of homes for sale has hit a 15-year low, estate agents claim… The startling figure from the NAEA Propertymark Housing Report for March… The report found that the number of properties available to buy on member estate agents’ books decreased to 39 in March from 44 in February.”
April 24:
“Rightmove also reported that… stock increased from 52 to 65 over the same period (February to March)”.
Does that seem like NAEA and Rightmove need to get their figures aligned – AND their headlines?
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Big fan of @PropIndEye but really not sure dividing number of people looking by supply is of any relevance at all?
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I promised you my vote for “COMMENT OF THE WEEK” for this, Mr Mead – I duly cast my vote!
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Does anyone have the time, patience… or even inclination to pick what are clearly a myriad of holes in this latest attempt at credible reporting of #alternative_fact from NAEA?
The industry are secretly laughing at it. No – actually, some of us are doing it out in the open.
The saddest thing there being that it’s not funny in the least that those who are perceived to be the authoritative commentators seem to understand diddly squat about what they are commentating on.
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The devil is in the detail:
“The startling figure from the NAEA Propertymark Housing Report for March is somewhat tempered by the relatively small sample size of just 554 branches who responded to the survey.”
I’d suggest it is the reporting that is in error here.
I was always taught a survey with under 2,000 respondents is not a survey, it’s an opinion.
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Well I can only speak in terms of what PurpleBricks have been saying and what I have observed since February.
In December they said that the number of transactions for the half year to the end of October were up over 100% on the same period in the year before. They said, from memory, that current trading was showing a similar rate of growth.
Then there was a tweet that claimed that January had reached record levels.
Since then I’ve been monitoring their listings and they look very healthy. In April 2016 they reported they had 2827 instructions and this month looks as though it’s going to be way ahead of that (wouldn’t rule out close to 100% growth) and it includes 5 weekends.
But having said all that there don’t appear to be many properties coming on to the market where I live. I’ve also looked at one particular non-local estate agent’s listings and they are down about 75% on the same period last year.
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“In April 2016 they reported they had 2827 instructions and this month looks as though it’s going to be way ahead of that (wouldn’t rule out close to 100% growth)”
Can’t wait for the 1st May to call you out on that one.
Meanwhile, I’d predict 60% YoY – with a wind behind them – and that being reliant on every ‘listing’ being a genuine, FIRST TIME listing.
So I guess we’ll never really know one way or t’other…
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>So I guess we’ll never really know one way or t’other…
Well not if you are determined to not trust audited revenue and average revenue per customer figures which will give you a very good idea at worst.
Purple Bricks’ auditor is Grant Thornton, one of the world’s largest professional services network of independent accounting and consulting member firms.
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Sorry – are you saying that Grant Thornton released the information regarding the 2827 ‘listings’ in 2016?
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I’m saying you will find out whether you are right in your estimate of 60% yoy growth if you trust the revenue & average revenue per customer figures after audit by Grant Thornton.
Some people are easier to convince and once they see audited accounts for one year will assume that it is very unlikely that figures provided prior to audit in the following year are unreliable.
I imagine you will have to wait longer and see the audited revenue figures.
In respect of the 2827 listings claim and other claims by PurpleBricks, Grant Thornton have said they find the information to be consistent with the financial results.
I suppose you think that PurpleBricks understated 2016 April instruction numbers so that when we got around to April 2017 the growth would look better. I’m sure at the time though you’d have been thinking they were inflating the figures to make them look better than they actually were 🙂
In fact if we look back to your comments from Jan 2016 I think I’m right. Here’s what you said in response to ‘Online Estate Agency Sceptic’s’ suggestion that they would become profitable in the not too distant future:
>“They’re suggesting c.2,000 for January. If that’s right…”
“That’s the biggest IF since ‘ifs’ were invented, I would suggest…”
This was in a year when audited accounts supported revenue figures of £18.6m and average revenue per instruction £901. Those audited figures support the estimate of 2000 don’t you think, given that Jan/Feb/March is typically the best quarter and month on month growth in the number of LPEs? Also 2827 for April, again given that April appears to be PB’s best month and month on month underlying growth as well as statements of 448% yearly growth accompanying the audited accounts.
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But having said all that there don’t appear to be many properties coming on to the market where I live. I’ve also looked at one particular non-local estate agent’s listings and they are down about 75% on the same period last year.
Trust your own evidence, it has a tendancey to be right when it comes to PB spin and double figures.
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