Rightmove may be weathering the housing market slowdown better than estate agents and housebuilders, but analysts have warned that falling transactions, rising borrowing costs and growing legal scrutiny could eventually threaten its earnings growth.
The property portal has reported a 10% fall in buyer demand and a 9% decline in sales agreed, yet it remains on course to increase revenue and profits this year.
However, its decision to lower the upper end of its revenue growth forecast from 8% to 7% has raised questions about how long it can continue outperforming the wider property market.
Analysts at eToro, RBC Capital Markets and Freetrade broadly agree that Rightmove’s dominant market position remains a major strength. But they differ over the extent to which that dominance can protect the business from deteriorating market conditions.
Rightmove’s dominance has its limits
Mark Crouch, market analyst at eToro, said Rightmove’s position remains strong, even as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on property values.
“Rightmove has built one of Britain’s most formidable competitive positions, but its influence has limits when buyers and sellers cannot agree on what a home is worth,” he said.
“Yesterday’s interest rate increase adds another obstacle for buyers already struggling with affordability, while sellers remain reluctant to accept that their properties may no longer command yesterday’s prices.”
Crouch argued that estate agents’ continued reliance on Rightmove could help protect the portal’s income, even as transactions decline.
“A struggling property market does not necessarily mean a struggling Rightmove, particularly when estate agents need every advantage they can get,” he said.
“Estate agents still need to attract buyers, making the platform difficult to ignore even as transactions dry up.”
However, he warned that sustained weakness could eventually affect the businesses paying to advertise on the portal.
“Falling buyer demand, fewer agreed sales and pressure on housebuilders could eventually squeeze the agents and developers funding its success.
“Rightmove remains remarkably resilient, but the longer Britain’s property stalemate persists, the harder that dominance may become to monetise.”
Analysts divided over Rightmove’s growth prospects
Anthony Codling, managing director of equity research at RBC Capital Markets, struck a more positive note.
He argued that Rightmove remains relatively insulated from the difficulties facing estate agents, despite mortgage rates rising and transactions slowing.
“Rightmove remains one step removed from the twists, turns and challenges faced by the UK housing market,” he said.
“Despite a deteriorating end-market backdrop, with mortgage rates rising to 5.5% and sales agreed volumes down 9%, the business continues to grow revenue, profits and free cash flow through strong execution.”
Codling highlighted Rightmove’s investment in artificial intelligence and its ability to retain advertisers.
The portal has introduced a third feature to its Ask Rightmove AI platform, while users engaging with its conversational tools spend more than twice as long on the website and generate more than three times as many leads.
These figures show an association between AI engagement and user activity, rather than proving that AI caused the increase.
Codling also pointed to Rightmove’s decision to upgrade its underlying earnings-per-share growth forecast from at least 5% to at least 7%.
“We continue to believe that shares remain materially undervalued at current levels and retain our Outperform rating,” he said.
Revenue warning raises questions
Duncan Ferris, analyst at Freetrade, was more cautious.
“Rightmove might have defied a weak UK property market to be on course for an increase in profit and revenue, but there are some warning signs of a potential ceiling on revenue growth,” he said.
“Perhaps the biggest red flag is Rightmove’s trim of the top end of revenue guidance for this year, from 8% to 7%, along with expectations for average advertiser spend as fewer new developments are being listed on its site.”
Rightmove now expects revenue growth of 6% to 7% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 6% to 8%.
It has also reduced its forecast for average revenue per advertiser growth from £110–£120 to £100–£110, attributing the change entirely to weaker spending by housebuilders.
Estate agency advertiser retention remained at 92% at the end of October, down from 93% a year earlier.
Ferris acknowledged that Rightmove’s ability to retain advertisers remains a significant advantage.
“For all the grey clouds over the market, Rightmove’s platform is the glue holding its performance together, likely aided by strong engagement in its myriad new AI features,” he said.
“Its retention of advertisers during the period was particularly impressive, hitting 92%, its second highest level in the past decade.”
£1.5bn legal claim adds to pressure
Ferris also highlighted the collective legal action facing Rightmove over allegations that it has abused its dominant market position by overcharging estate agents.
The claim, valued at approximately £1.5bn, is being pursued through the Competition Appeal Tribunal.
Following hearings last week, the tribunal reserved judgment on whether the proceedings should continue on an opt-out collective basis.
Rightmove strongly denies the allegations. No finding of wrongdoing has been made.
Ferris said the case highlighted a potential vulnerability in the portal’s business model.
“Rightmove might still have a vice-like grip on residential property advertising, but that’s turning heads for the wrong reasons,” he said.
“Rightmove strongly denies the allegations, and the case may end up a non-starter, but it does highlight the potential risk of squeezing agents too hard in pursuit of growth in a weak market.”
The differing assessments underline the challenge facing Rightmove.
Its market position, advertiser retention and growing range of digital services continue to support revenue and profit growth.
But with housing transactions falling, mortgage rates rising and housebuilders reducing spending, analysts are questioning how long the portal can remain insulated from the pressures facing its customers.
