On October 30th our new chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £40bn tax raid on Britain. £20bn of that came from hiking National Insurance on employers from 13.8% to 15% per staff member. The threshold above which employers pay NI per employee has also been reduced from £10,000 to £5,000 and both measures will be introduced from April 6th 2025.

What does it mean to you? Well, both announcements together will cost companies £986 per employee per year more according to the Chartered Institute of Taxation based upon a staff member that earns £40,000 per annum.

This might stick in the throat a little especially given the irony that the job in charge of the country’s finances is held by someone whose qualification may only be that she dealt with customer complaints. I think there’s more than one irony there perhaps. 

But for our sector perhaps this cash-grab isn’t so bad when you look at how I think the UK property market will shake out during 2025. Will buoyant property sales and lettings transactions mitigate Rachel’s ruthlessness? 

For now at least, buyer demand seems strong. With the general election out of the way and the Budget too, my agency mates tell me that they’re busy. Most at least.

Lettings too are having a decent time and as we all know, tenant demand will always exceed supply of stock when the UK population is growing by 700,000 people a year and homes built languish at much less than 200,000.

Despite the recent inflation blip, mortgage rates are going to be lower and sentiment, the driver of all markets, seems positive. Transactions look to be higher in 2025 versus 2024 and house prices and rents higher too.

For estate agents, if the coming year sees a 10% uplift in sales and an average fee per sale up 5% (fees £ based on house prices increasing) that’s an additional £500 million to be shared amongst the country’s 16,000 agency branches – or £22,000 per branch.  

It’s impossible to know what this means for each estate or lettings agency business in bottom line terms exactly, but my point is that property will be one of the busier sectors next year as home loan rates fall and assuming employment data stays healthy.

Why do you think so many big players are buying agencies now? And on that note, is 2024 an M&A record I wonder? The likes of Lomond, Foxtons, Dexters etc and CoStar with their huge investment into OnTheMarket with plans to spend big on marketing over the coming months – plus the bold move by REA to attempt to buy Rightmove. They all know something hence the bets they are placing now. 

Agree or disagree, but it could be worse…. you could have chosen a career in farming. 

Josh Rayner is founder and CEO of Rayner Personnel, recruitment specialists to the property industry