Research from eXp UK, the network of personal estate agents, reveals that reduced homebuyer activity has led to a 30.5% drop in UK house sales, and that one Scottish city is the only place to report an increase in transactions.
Over the last 12 months, there have been 843,600 sales transactions completed across the UK. This marks a sharp drop compared to the 12 months previous during which there were 1.2 million sales.
A regional analysis of the UK market reveals that each and every corner of the land has seen a decline in sales, nowhere more so than the East of England where the annual figure has dropped by 37.3%, from 125,808 to 78,887.
In the South East, sales have dropped by 37.2%, closely followed by the South West with a 37.1% decline.
The drop in transactions has also been significant in London (-35.3%), the East Midlands (-31.9%), West Midlands (-30.8%), Yorkshire & Humber (-29.7%), North West (-28.3%), North East (-23.6%), Northern Ireland (-22.5%), and Wales (-19.6%).
The smallest drop has been seen in Scotland where a decline from 121,544 transactions to 105,465 marks an annual drop of 13.2%.
After a hyper-local analysis, eXp discovered that Maldon, Essex, has reported the nation’s biggest annual drop in sales, falling 49.4%.
Uttlesford, also in Essex, reported a transaction decline of 48.3%, while Harborough, Leicestershire, recorded a 47.4% fall.
Meanwhile, the smallest decline in sales transactions have been seen in East Ayrshire (-8.8%), Blackpool (-4.8%), and Clackmannanshire (-4.2%).
However, there is one UK location that has bucked this wider trend to see an uplift in transactions.
The City of Aberdeen is the only place in the UK to report an increase in sales over the last 12 months, with numbers rising by 4.1%.
Head of eXp UK, Adam Day, commented: “The UK’s housing market has cooled slightly in the past year. Buyers have been cautious in the face of economic uncertainty, and this has understandably contributed to a decline in the number of homes sold.
“But it’s also important to note that there was an incredible surge in market activity during the peak of the pandemic and so while this decline in transactions may seem drastic, it’s really a return to normality.
“There remains a strong level of buyer activity across the market and house prices have not tumbled in the way many predicted they would. The current outlook for the market is also far brighter than it was just a few months ago and so those predicting a property market crash are likely to be disappointed come the end of the year.”
| Table shows the number of sales transactions in the UK over the last 12 months compared to the previous equivolent period | ||||||||||||
| Location | Sales vol – previous 12 months (Oct 2020 to Sep 2021) | Sales vol – latest 12 months (Oct 2021 to Sep 2022) | Change n | Change % | ||||||||
| Scotland | 121,544 | 105,465 | -16,079 | -13.2% | ||||||||
| Wales | 50,978 | 40,962 | -10,016 | -19.6% | ||||||||
| Northern Ireland | 32,412 | 25,109 | -7,303 | -22.5% | ||||||||
| North East | 45,392 | 34,681 | -10,711 | -23.6% | ||||||||
| North West | 130,260 | 93,354 | -36,906 | -28.3% | ||||||||
| Yorkshire & Humber | 97,649 | 68,665 | -28,984 | -29.7% | ||||||||
| West Midlands Region | 94,560 | 65,436 | -29,124 | -30.8% | ||||||||
| East Midlands | 89,861 | 61,160 | -28,701 | -31.9% | ||||||||
| London | 115,861 | 74,980 | -40,881 | -35.3% | ||||||||
| South West | 121,314 | 76,311 | -45,003 | -37.1% | ||||||||
| South East | 188,732 | 118,520 | -70,212 | -37.2% | ||||||||
| East of England | 125,808 | 78,887 | -46,921 | -37.3% | ||||||||
| England | 1,009,437 | 671,994 | -337,443 | -33.4% | ||||||||
| United Kingdom | 1,214,375 | 843,600 | -370,775 | -30.5% | ||||||||
If I were still operating in sales these figures would cause me concern. Estate agents rely on transaction numbers not the house values. If transactions are dropping this much, I would think that some agents are going to struggle. Maybe this is just a return to normalcy, but there are also a lot of agents who were not in the market in 2008!
No one knows what the future holds, but I don’t think 2023 will be as good as 2022 or 2021.
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No s==t Sherlock
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Buyers are waiting to see what happens with interest rates – they are still about and rates are getting more competitive as lenders need market share. Not sure the comparison between 2021 & 2022 is helpful.
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Thanks for the stats CW
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The ‘head’ of an organisation with more agents than properties for sale comments on publicly available stats as an informed expert and says the market has cooled slightly when transactions are down by a third – good grief!
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