Property industry reflects on latest UK house price data

In England the August data shows, on average, house prices have risen by 0.2% since July 2023. There has been no annual price change, taking the average property value to £309,616.

The regional data for England indicates that:

  • the North East experienced the greatest monthly rise with a movement of 1.3%
  • the East of England saw the lowest monthly price growth, with a fall of -0.7%
  • the North East experienced the greatest annual price rise, up by 3.6%
  • the East of England saw the lowest annual price growth, with a fall of -1.6%

Price change by region for England

Region Average price August 2023 Annual change % since August 2022 Monthly change % since August 2023
East Midlands £250,818 0.5 0.6
East of England £350,728 -1.6 -0.7
London £535,597 -1.4 -0.1
North East £165,366 3.6 1.3
North West £215,791 0.4 0.0
South East £393,417 -0.6 -0.1
South West £328,413 -1.1 1.2
West Midlands £253,519 1.1 0.5
Yorkshire and the Humber £213,264 2.2 0.4

Repossession sales by volume for England

The lowest number of repossession sales in June 2023 was in the East of England.

The highest number of repossession sales in June 2023 was in the North East.

Repossession sales June 2023
East Midlands 3
East of England 1
London 11
North East 14
North West 8
South East 11
South West 5
West Midlands 6
Yorkshire and the Humber 7
England 66

Average price by property type for England

Property type Aug 2023 Aug 2022 Difference %
Detached £487,570 £484,643 -0.6
Semi-detached £298,943 £296,289 -0.9
Terraced £252,382 £255,046 -1
Flat/maisonette £251,528 £252,898 -0.5
All £309,616 £309,565 0.0

Funding and buyer status for England

Transaction type Average price Aug 2023 Annual price change % since Aug 2022 Monthly price change % since July 2023
Cash £289,425 -0.3 0.2
Mortgage £319,637 0.2 0.2
First-time buyer £256,654 0 0.3
Former owner occupier £355,528 0.1 0.1

Building status for England

Building status Average price June 2023 Annual price change % since June 2023 Monthly price change % since May 2023
New build £443,821 22.1 4.6
Existing resold property £299,068 1.1 1.3

Industry reactions: 

Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, said: “In August, buyers were adopting a more strategic property search by adjusting their budget or widening their search criteria to find a suitable home. Although some buyers took a break during the August holidays, others utilised the month to enter price negotiations or seal the deal by signing contracts.

“Chestertons sold 5% more properties in August compared to July and registered more new buyers, suggesting that house hunters had digested the higher mortgage rates at the time and were taking advantage of the slower sales market.”

 

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, commented: “This time last year the chancellor was in damage control mode over the disastrous effects of the so-called ‘Mini Budget’, which has impacted homeowners and prospective buyers ever since.

“The figures may then come as a surprise, with house prices holding steady during the summer. What we are seeing on the ground is that sellers are increasingly more flexible when it comes to the offer they are accepting, and this may be helping the market.

“Affordability is making it more difficult to get on the ladder, but with the ONS announcing yesterday that wages have overtaken inflation for the first time in nearly two years, there is hope that potential buyers may be able to start saving once again.

“We know that the demand for high-quality housing is still there and the readjustment in house prices that we have seen over the past year could persuade more people to part with their deposits.

“As long as inflation holds down and we avoid any further interest rate rises, fluctuations in house prices should settle down in the coming months.”

 

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, commented: “The continued resilience of the UK housing market should not be underestimated. While house price growth may have subdued – perhaps the expected outcome in response to more challenging lending conditions – the market is taking a ‘Keep Calm and Carry on’ approach to housing.

“Across our national network, we are seeing new instructions rise as committed sellers remain eager to make their move – a level on a par with the same time a year ago. This sentiment is reinforced by the volume of instructions increasing up and down the country, up 72% since January. In some areas of the country, the Autumn market is experiencing a late Summer sizzle, with Sherborne, Norwich and Blandford coming out as top performing locations for the Jackson-Stops network with the biggest increases in buyers vs sellers month on month.

“Irrespective of short term uncertainty and economic headwinds, the fundamentals of the property remain the same. Buying a home or taking out a mortgage are some of the most significant and long-term financial decisions a person will make, and while there are always periods that are more favourable financially, changes to lifestyle will inevitably continue to contribute to transactions completing.

“More broadly, homeowners have been paying close attention to the recent party conferences, hoping to compare the major parties housing policies ahead of the next general election, which could be as soon as next spring. Whilst the run up to an election year can breed more uncertainty, we are yet to see this in a big way. If positioned correctly, it is hoped that any new housing policies serve to stimulate markets and broader economic confidence, supporting transactions and housing mobility across the UK.”

 

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “The seasonal rise in housing market activity was marginal this autumn, buyers as sellers failed to see a light at the end of the tunnel for high interest rates. The Bank of England’s struggle to contain inflation over the last 18 months has undermined sentiment, that vital lubricant in the UK housing market. #

While mortgage rates have stabilised, house prices will continue to come under pressure as monthly mortgage costs rise sharply. That said, we think most of the price correction will happen this year and demand will strengthen in 2024 as economic sentiment improves. Activity may stutter ahead of next year’s general election but modest single-digit annual growth should return from 2025.”

 

Jason Tebb, CEO of OnTheMarket, commented: This data is a little historic but shows the continued, gentle slowdown in annual price growth in August, with the average property price little changed from a year ago.

“The housing market continues to show remarkable resilience considering ongoing economic uncertainty. Inflation remaining at 6.7 per cent for a second consecutive month is a concern, and borrowers may need to brace themselves for another base rate rise in November.

“Affordability continues to be a challenge but while there may be fewer buyers as a result, our data shows they are highly motivated. Sellers who take advice from a local agent and price sensitively will still find plenty of opportunity to successfully transact.”

 

Nicky Stevenson, MD at national estate agent group Fine & Country, said: “The ongoing pressure on household finances dampened house price growth over the summer, but the property market remains resilient.

“Although we are seeing some downward pressure on prices this autumn – partly as stronger supply is providing buyers with more headroom to haggle – the market is in a relatively stable position.

“Today’s announcement that inflation held steady in September will raise questions about the Bank of England’s next move. The most recent decision not to increase the base rate has provided a boost for the property market, and a repeat would likely further bolster activity.

“The good news for sellers is that buyers are very highly motivated, albeit being careful not to overstretch themselves financially.

“With the average time taken to complete a sale taking 20 weeks, most agreeing an offer now will probably not move until the new year.”

 

Emily Williams, director of research at Savills, commented: “The lack of movement in the ONS house price index for August reflects the slowdown in activity in the market over the summer. The RICS sentiment survey for both new buyers and new instructions has been negative since June, as higher mortgage costs have dampened demand for all but the most essential moves.

“However, stock levels remain below their pre-pandemic average in every region except London, and this lack of supply has acted as a limiting factor on price falls. Looking forwards, we expect there will be further small price adjustments this year. But easing mortgage rates, boosted by a more positive outlook for the rate of inflation, means there should be capacity for the market to return to growth in the second half of 2024.”

 

Malcolm Webb FRICS, technical director, Legal & General Surveying Services, commented: “The Bank of England’s decision to hold the base rate at 5.25% last month has offered fresh hope for new buyers and those looking to remortgage. As the first pause in the rate-rising cycle since late 2021, it has had a significant impact on the pricing of fixed rates and market sentiment. The market has responded positively, with swap rates (which largely dictate the pricing of mortgage products) remaining stable, and fixed rates repriced downwards as a result. Some lenders have also responded by introducing new and innovative offerings, with the number of mortgage products available on the market climbing to over 2,500 this month.

“It is important that anyone encouraged by stabilising house prices and interest rates understands that seeking expert guidance from a qualified adviser and surveyor are important parts of their homebuying journey. While a mortgage adviser has a whole-of-market view and access to exclusive products, a surveyor can identify hidden issues with your potential home (like dry rot or problems with the roof) which could be expensive issues later down the line. Not only does a survey reassure you in what is likely to be the most significant purchase of your life, but it also gives you the opportunity to negotiate the asking price, ensuring you buy wisely.”

 

Mobeen Akram, national new homes account director at Mortgage Advice Bureau New Homes, said: “The housebuilding industry has been in the eye of a perfect storm. While we’re seeing base rates and monthly mortgage payments plateauing, which could instil a sense of calm in consumers and developers alike, we may see more buyers sitting on the fence, holding out on any purchases until another drop occurs. In reality, it’s unlikely we’re going to see any major shifts in the coming weeks or perhaps even months, as many lenders may have already factored in future base rate drops.

“The market is currently more predictable and allows buyers to more accurately plan their finances. In fact, demand is on the rise, with a 1.1% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.

“While we cannot deny that the market is challenging, it’s positive that we are seeing mortgage rates – and subsequently, house prices – stabilising. Even in the new build industry, we’ve seen a 3.9% decrease in house prices, which may encourage more homebuyers for 2024. The UK housing market continues to stay afloat and stable market performance is always a good thing, and this consistency indicates that it will continue to stand its ground as the year draws to a close.”

 

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, commented:

“The lag between the price cutting we’re seeing on the property front line and the Land Registry figures meant today’s official data was always going to feel a bit sepia-tinted.

“But this is nevertheless an important moment, as it marks the point that the property price rise juggernaut finally ground to a halt.

“Average price growth in England in the 12 months to the end of August was zero. Prices rose by a comparatively robust 1.1% in Scotland but fell by 0.1% in Wales.

“Compared to the double-digit rates of price inflation seen barely a year ago, the slowdown has been dramatic. But by far the biggest casualty of the market correction is the number of homes being sold – transactions in August were 16% down on the same month last year.

“Higher interest rates have forced would-be buyers to reassess what they can afford and are hurting thousands of homeowners each month when they come to remortgage.

“But there’s still no sign of the wave of distressed sales seen during the financial crisis of a decade and half ago.

“In fact constrained supply is helping prices fall gently, and there is still a steady stream of buyers who are being tempted by the chance to secure a significant discount in an increasingly compelling buyer’s market.

“With average wages now rising faster than consumer inflation, people’s disposable income is rising again – and as property prices continue to soften this should boost demand over coming months, even if every buyer will continue to factor price risk and higher borrowing costs into what they’re prepared to pay.”

 

 

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