No house price falls but ‘considerable uncertainty’ until dust settles, say lenders

Gross mortgage lending for May was at its highest level for the month since 2008, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, amid warnings of reduced activity following the Brexit vote.

The trade body estimates that gross mortgage lending reached £18.2bn in May, up 4% from April and 14% higher year-on-year.

It was £23.7bn in May 2008.

Lending was 4% higher than April (£17.6bn), and 14% higher than May 2015 (£16bn), and the highest May figure since 2008 when gross lending reached £23.7bn.

Mohammad Jamei, senior economist for the CML, said: “Looking ahead, there is likely to be considerable uncertainty as a result of the EU referendum decision.

“We expect this to affect sentiment and reduce activity below levels that would otherwise be expected in the near term, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the dust begins to settle.

“Market fundamentals underpinning house prices still look sound, and we do not expect significant house price falls, especially given the current supply demand imbalance.”

Adam Tyler, chief executive of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers, said: “A wait-and-see attitude and increased caution among buyers and sellers alike is inevitable after the unprecedented political turbulence of the past few days.

“Market fundamentals still look sound and the sharp imbalance between supply and demand will prevent a material decline in prices.

“Sentiment may have shifted dramatically over the past few days but the structural imbalance between supply and demand is as strong as ever.

“Demand naturally tapered off in the buy-to-let sector following the Stamp Duty surcharge but it may experience a bounce after Friday’s referendum result.

“Current market and politico-economic volatility could benefit buy-to-let as investors once again look to bricks and mortar as a safe port in a storm, despite the new entry premium.

“The fact that the bank rate is now more likely to go down than up in the near term will provide further support to the property market.

“Understandably, there’s a lot of hysteria surrounding the trajectory of the property market, but our own view is that the reality will prove to be relatively benign.”

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