Mortgage approvals dip in number in post-referendum month

The Brexit vote is yet to hit lending levels, the British Bankers’ Association has reported.

As the waiting goes on for meaningful data to emerge, it does however appear that the doomsday scenario predicted by former Chancellor George Osborne is unlikely.

The latest lending data from trade body the BBA, the first since the EU referendum, showed gross mortgage borrowing of £12.6bn in July, up 6% year-on-year and slightly up from £12.3b in June.

However, the number of mortgage approvals fell in July to 71,835, down from 74,988 in June 2016.

The average approval has also fallen in value. The value of house purchase approvals fell from £184,400 in June to £177,400 in July.

Rebecca Harding, chief economist for the BBA, said: “This month’s BBA High Street Banking statistics are the first set of borrowing figures gathered since the EU referendum. The data does not currently suggest borrowing patterns have been significantly affected by the Brexit vote, but it is still early days. Many borrowing decisions will have been taken before the referendum.”

Tanya Jackson, head of corporate affairs at Yorkshire Building Society, said the lender was still expecting changes in market activity.

She said: “These figures suggest that people’s desire to own a property largely outweighed any uncertainty caused by the EU referendum in July.

“That said, the full effects of the vote are unlikely to be seen until a few months after the outcome of the vote was announced, as those buying a home in July are likely to have begun the house buying process before the EU referendum.

“We do expect the outcome of the EU vote to limit market activity to an extent in the short-term as prospective buyers take a ‘wait and see’ approach on how it affects their finances.

“However, people’s desire to own a home should support demand for mortgages in the long term. This, combined with the lack of supply, is likely to put upwards pressure on house prices in the long term which will in turn push up the size of deposits and loans required.”

Meanwhile, separate data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows first-time buyers continue to dominate transactions.

They borrowed £3bn in the second quarter of 2016, up 3% on the previous quarter and 10% year-on-year.

This equated to 10,800 loans, up 3% quarter-on-quarter but down 1% year-on-year.

In comparison, home mover borrowing was down 41% on quarter one to £2.5billion and 14% compared with a year ago.

London showed signs of a slowing market with home buyers in the capital borrowing £5billion, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and down 3% year-on-year.

They took out 17,500 loans, down 17% on the previous quarter and 8% compared to the second quarter 2015.

The average home loan in the UK was £172.295 in the UK, but was far more in the capital.

London buyers borrowed on average £258,400, up from £249,700, on a typical loan-to value of 75%, while home movers took £324,000 down from £339,500, taking an average LTV of 65%.

Paul Smee, director general of the CML, said: “First-time buyers have continued to drive mortgage lending in London, with 10% more first-time buyer lending in the second quarter than the first. The opposite is true for home movers, probably just reflecting a rebalancing after the very strong first quarter as many buyers sought to complete purchases before changes to stamp duty.

“The second quarter data largely pre-dates the EU referendum.

“While it will take time to see how Brexit may affect the market, the London mortgage market clearly remains active and firmly open for business.”

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