Interest rate rise could be as soon as October, warns Knight Frank

Knight Frank has warned that the first rate rise could be as early as this autumn.

The warning comes as estate agency group LSL this morning reported on the housing market, saying that there were 90,000 sales in July, a 10% monthly increase. LSL said there were 90,000 sales in July and painted a picture of a rising housing market – saying that outside London and the south east, annual house price growth is 4.6%.

Simon Gammon, managing partner in charge of Knight Frank Finance, said: “The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a record low of 0.5% but it may only be a matter of months before we see a rate of 0.75%.”

He went on: “It seems increasingly likely that the central bank rate setters may vote to raise rates before the end of the year.

“The added benefit of raising rates in 2014 is that it won’t yet be election year, rendering any political chat around the move less potent.

“It also paves the way for a further rise in the lead-up to the election.”

Gammon said he expects a rise in base rate of 0.25% in October or November.

Separately, trade body the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association says that, in its research among lenders, 17% expect the first rate rise this year and 44% expect it in the first three months of next.

However, 36% of mortgage brokers believe a rate rise will be announced before the end of this year, and 24% expect it in the first quarter of next year, with the remainder believing it will be later than that.

Both lenders and brokers say that existing home owners will be most affected, followed by recent first-time buyers.

IMLA executive director Peter Williams said: “The fact that lenders feel recent first-time buyers will be spared the impact of rising rates is an encouraging sign that stress tests implemented under the Mortgage Market Review are doing their job and will ensure that borrowers are financially prepared for higher interest payments.

“It’s important to remember that the first rate rise in more than five or potentially even six years will seem like a momentous occasion when it arrives, but the size of increase is likely to be very modest, certainly to begin with.

“The Bank is firmly focused on cautious steps that will preserve the recovery and will guard against punishing existing borrowers.”

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One Comment

  1. bt

    Like everyone Knight Frank are only guessing – and trying to get some free press!, and to rework the stats of the int mtg lenders 83% of lenders don't expect a rate rise this year. Not a good story

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