Housing transactions drop – or perhaps go up

There were nearly 100,000 property transactions last month, HMRC has reported.

The “seasonally adjusted” figure, which is also provisional, was 99,320 for May – a monthly drop of 3.5%, although 14.89% higher than May last year.

Muddlingly, however, the “not seasonally adjusted” figure is higher, at 100,360 transactions.

Indeed, the “not seasonally adjusted” figures – the “actuals” – show property transactions steadily rising since February – including a monthly rise between April and May.

At the end of April, tougher rules were introduced by the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), while some lenders have introduced their own new restrictions on loans based on high multiples of income.

Tomorrow, the Bank of England is due to announce whether it will intervene in Britain’s housing market “boom”.

But perhaps the BoE should decide first whether to believe the “seasonally adjusted” or the “not seasonally adjusted” figures.

Anyone who would like to give Mark Carney the benefit of their advice can take a look here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321373/UK_Tables_Jun_2014__cir_.pdf

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