Residential property transactions in November 2024 returned to their previous levels, with seasonally adjusted residential transactions decreasing by 8% to 92,640 in November, down from 100,580 in October.
For the same period, seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions fell below their previous levels, decreasing by 33% from October 2024. October 2024 saw the highest monthly seasonally adjusted figures since these statistics began in April 2005, which alongside the sharp fall in transactions in November could indicate that transactions were brought forward to October 2024.
Between April and November 2024, non-residential transactions totalled 83,950, the highest level since 2018.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, commented: “With more competitive interest rates than this time last year, growing numbers of homes coming to the market, and a rush from many buyers and sellers to beat the rises to Stamp Duty commencing from April 2025 in England and Northern Ireland, the overall mix of market conditions has inspired many and, in numerous cases, provided the extra confidence and affordability people were waiting for to make their first or next house move.
“We anticipate a busier than normal first quarter of 2025. However, activity will likely settle back down to more expected levels, allowing people to comprehensively review the market and negotiate their next move without the pressure of a stamp duty deadline.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, commented: “Many perspective buyers were waiting for mortgage rates to fall further before making their move, however, the impending Stamp Duty deadline has spurred them to act sooner. Historically the lead up to a Stamp Duty change has generally created an increase of activity, and this time is no different.
“Despite a less-than-ideal start, the housing market proved resilient and finished 2024 strongly. This year the housing market has started in a much stronger position with more choice for buyers and a strong sales pipeline.
“If the Bank of England decides to cut the rate in February, it will be a further shot in the arm for the market. Rates cuts are on the card for 2025, but how many is still up for debate. While some economists are expecting at least four rate cuts, the financial markets are currently pricing in just two. Interest rate cuts should have a knock-on effect on mortgage rates, improving affordability and stimulating market activity.”
Jonathan Handford, MD at Fine & Country, noted that a drop in transactions in November was always the most likely scenario following a bumper month in October ahead of the traditional winter slowdown. This is hibernation mode for some potential buyers, with activity likely to pick up again next month.
He remarked: “The annual increase of 13% shows the resilience of the market despite broader economic challenges. Buyers continue to act decisively, taking advantage of competitive mortgage rates and increased supply, while sellers benefit from sustained demand.
“This trend could continue in the first quarter of this year, as buyers hurry to beat April’s stamp duty deadline. Overall, market conditions are favourable towards buyers right now, despite budgets being stretched.
“Looking ahead to 2025, the challenge for the market will be maintaining this momentum. Ensuring stability in borrowing costs, coupled with a steady pipeline of new listings, will be crucial to supporting sustained activity.
“An interest rate fall is on the horizon, but the Bank of England has wavered in recent months, as inflation remains sticky.
“The high-end market could also do with a shot in the arm, with prime residential buyers remaining cautious due to economic uncertainty. There are a number of aspects at play that are having an impact on this sector, such as the new stamp duty surcharge, changes to non-dom status and the higher interest rate environment.”
Stacy Eden, partner and head of real estate at RSM UK, said: “Residential property transactions for November 2024 were 92,640, which is 13% higher than the previous year and aside from October 2024, is the highest number of transactions since December 2022, indicating the market remains buoyant. It is important to note that October saw a large jump in transactions due to purchasers’ concerns about future stamp duty land tax rises before the Autum Budget. But, the market is showing further signs of moving in the right direction, with transactions between April and November 2024 sitting 10% above the same period for 2023.
“Transactions in Q4 2024 have been driven by an expectation that in 2025, growth will edge towards a normal level, and interest rates will continue to fall towards 4%. However, with debt yields rising, tax increases, and potential for further fiscal constraints, there is some concern that residential transactions may see a downturn if market confidence dips.”
He added: “It is therefore important the government continues to push forward with policies and investment to ensure housebuilding targets are realised, by focusing on development and planning reforms. This will have the added benefit of boosting the UK economy when fiscal and monetary levers are not available.”