Home sales are either down or up: HMRC tells it like it may be

UK residential property transactions rose in March to 100,790, HMRC has reported.

However, our old friend seasonal adjustment has been unusually hard at work.

The “provisional seasonally adjusted” figure was similar to February’s, but down 2.5% on March last year.

However, “non-adjusted” transactions in March were a lot lower than the adjusted ones – and yet higher on both a monthly and an annual basis.

The “non-adjusted” figures – which most people would call the actual transactions – show 93,120 sales, up from 91,570 in March last year, and much better than February’s figure of 79,830.

The March figures, both of which are likely to be higher than those which the Land Registry will come up with in due course, seemed to perplex agents.

Adrian Gill, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains, said buyers were “beating around the bush at the moment”.

However, he is predicting an “uptick of confidence” when the general election is out of the way.

Peter Rollins, of Marsh & Parsons, said: “Property transactions held firm in March and are consistent with the activity levels we witnessed throughout much of the middle part of last year.

“But where 2014 started with a flourish then withered away somewhat, we expect this year to be much the reverse.”

Eye says it again: Isn’t it time we got rid of this “seasonally adjusted” nonsense?

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