After nearly four months of uncertainty and falling consumer confidence demand in higher-value and more discretionary markets has dipped, according to Knight Frank.
The number of offers made on UK properties below £2m fell 5% in the year to September, data from the estate agency showed. Meanwhile, the equivalent fall above £5m was 18%.
Stamp duty on sales above £2m accounted for 22% of the £11.7bn raised last year, which is something the government may want to consider as it puts the finishing touches to its Budget.
Labour has said it will not raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance, which means speculation has focussed on just about every other tax.
We know about VAT on private schools from January, but uncertainty also surrounds the taxation of private equity funds and pension tax relief rules. Rumours of a capital gains tax increase have caused some nervousness among landlords, but the rate for second homes is set to remain unchanged.
The taxation of non doms has also generated headlines and is one reason for the recent hesitancy in super-prime property markets.
However, a four-month delay between the election and the Budget has given the government time to consider the ramifications of its original plan for non doms.
Foreign Investors for Britain (FIFB) has encouraged Labour to widen its proposals by introducing a so-called Tiered Tax Regime (TTR). Under the proposed scheme, individuals would pay an annual amount based on their net wealth, which in turn would protect them from UK taxation (including inheritance tax) on overseas income.
An Oxford Economics survey found that 98% of non doms would accelerate their emigration plans under the current proposals, a figure that would drop to 13% if the TTR was introduced.
It estimates the current regime could therefore cost the government up to £1bn by 2029/30. How much could the TTR raise instead? Expect a number in the billions to be announced this week.
Gabor Futo is a non dom who is originally from Hungary and has lived in the UK for three years. He is co-founder of Foreign Investors for Britain as well as real estate company Futureal, which invests in commercial and residential markets in the UK and Europe.
In the UK, his company employs around 50 people and owns assets worth £250m, operating in the logistics, social housing, and build-to-rent sectors.
“The non dom regime has been in place for 100 years, so it makes no sense to undo all that work in 100 days,” he told Knight Frank, citing the issue of levying inheritance tax on non-UK assets as his key concern.
Based on the proposals set out in the Labour manifesto, he would leave for mainland Europe, saying the decision would be “uncomfortable but straightforward.”
“If I wasn’t living in the UK, I would be less interested in investing here,” he said. “If I stayed, as well as enjoying all the great things about living here, the company would invest more in the logistics and living sectors.”
“What isn’t always appreciated is that many non doms agree the system has been under-serving the Treasury and they would be happy to pay more tax.”