Readers could be forgiven for feeling at a loss as to how the residential property market is performing. Within the last month, The Guardian has reported that ‘UK house prices rise after seven months of falls’ and then, several days later, reported price growth had slumped to the ‘lowest level in more than a decade’.
There are nuances in tracking the value of house prices and house price growth, and inconsistencies in how the performance of the market is reported are not only of limited help to those looking to buy or sell a home, but the confusion is causing questions in confidence.
This issue is not helped by a sense of lethargy and a lack of urgency amongst some professional partners within the sector. When buyer confidence is knocked and people are tempted to slow or pause their property search, there is less pressure to see deals over the line. Professionals need to maintain momentum, or we’ll see the wider market suffer as a result.
Nonetheless, to those on the ground, it certainly seems as though things are improving. Enquires are up and transactions appear to be picking up too. As the ripples of the mini-Budget died out, confidence picked up over Christmas and the new year has been busier than expected. Traditionally, spring usually sees a growth in activity and after several years away from a traditional market due to Brexit, elections, and Covid, it seems the market has returned to seasonality and is performing well, which has thankfully been more consistently reflected in recent headlines.
Performing well is, however, relative, as the most important thing for the economy is not so much an increase in prices, but stabilty and an increase in transactional volume. Unfortantley, when it comes to housing and the economy, this seems to be eluding those who are supposed to be leading us. Regarding the importance of housing, so far as this government is concerned, you need look no further than the turnover of housing ministers, which has seen five ministers come and go in the past two years. Clearly, housing is quite frankly just not a priority!
This government, and many that have come before it, whilst publicly talking a good game, have essentially given up on building homes. It has turned its back on its most Important function – to prepare for the future – and on young people desperate to get their foot on the housing ladder, instead opting to priotise the favour of their backbenchers and bending over backwards to accommodate their wishes, rather than doing what is right!
The endless opposition to development has seen housebuilding slump to record lows. According to The Guardian, local authorities received fewer applications to build new buildings or improve existing stock in 2022 than at any stage since before 2006, which is the earliest year for which government statistics are available.
With the population growing at record rates – the UK is reportedly set to overtake France for the first time in history – the mismatch between supply and demand will only make it even harder for first-time buyers to get on the housing ladder and for second-steppers to move into a family home. A recent study by the Home Builders Federation, for instance, predicts that housebuilding levels in England could fall to the lowest level since the Second World War. Without change, things will only get worse, and our children will have nowhere to live.
Unfortunately, rather than fix the problem, it seems the government would rather exacerbate it. Not only has the commitment to modernising the archaic planning system retreated into the distant past, with the flagship Planning Bill having been quietly shelved after the Chesham and Amersham by-election loss, but the government could potentially empower further opposition to housebuilding through its street votes proposal.
A cornerstone of the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill, the measure will enable homeowners to hold mini-referenda on proposed development. Although the intention is to give homeowners the agency to loosen planning laws, given the amount of equity that people have tied up in homes, it seems inevitable that the policy will result in fuelling objections to planning applications. The reality is, however open minded people may be, no one wants disruption, change, or building works near their home.
And then there’s the existing planning system itself, which is archaic, underfunded and seemingly intent on stopping development in its tracks. Navigating local planning departments is costly, complex, and time-consuming, and all too often decisions on development are made on the basis of subjective views rather than facts. Faced with the extent of the supply challenge, aesthetic considerations, which are entirely subjective, can no longer be the sole basis for challenge. The government needs to get Britain building – as it has repeatedly promised to do! There lies the challenge. What is needed is the radical overhaul promised: a modernising of planning laws to actually promote development rather than the toleration of a system that prevents it.
At the same time as fixing the broken planning system, the government should also revive Help to Buy, but with some key tweaks to improve its efficacy. Small, mid-sized and major house builders all need a level of security on the value of the homes they build, and ‘Help to Buy’ provides this, creating incentive for developers to build where they are able to.
However, to ensure the scheme is as successful as possible, the scope should be expanded to be made available to first time buyers buying older homes, rather than purely focussing on new builds. This would allow homeowners looking to move up the property ladder to sell their home more easily whilst making existing housing stock available to first time buyers.
The question of where our children are going to live has been asked frequently over the last few years. And though an answer has perhaps never been more urgently needed, it also seems increasingly unlikely to be supplied. It appears that this government has lost all interest in addressing the situation.
Simon Gerrard is managing director of 13-branch Martyn Gerrard in north London
Great Article.
You could further enhance it by commenting on the farce of the NPPF review causing mass pausing of local plan making.
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rubbish
Developers are building less because the market is ****
H2B just increased prices for new homes and developers profits I know I am a developer
idiot
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