Around this time of the year the property industry and the media begin the annual round of navel gazing as they set about predicting what house prices will do in the coming twelve months.
About these predictions only one thing is certain. Most will be spectacularly wrong.
No matter how much seemingly informed opinion surrounds the headline figures there is a huge and an inescapable element of guesswork in trying to define an exact percentage of future change.
But the resulting headlines do influence behaviours so when the Daily Mail reports industry legend Harry Hill saying at the weekend that, ‘we could see 20 per cent price reductions’ you can bet that an element of the general public will take that as fact, with predictable consequences.
In fairness, Hill did also say that most homeowners are unlikely to be plunged into negative equity and he pointed out that the housing market has had ‘a brilliant run’ in recent years, so most property values remain well above purchase prices. But of course that bit didn’t make it into the headlines…
We reckon that EYE readers are as well-informed and more knowledgeable than most so here is your opportunity to be part of the collective say about where house prices will go in 2023.
We are inviting you to analyse all the available data, extrapolate the trend lines, factor in worldwide economic and political influences, and give us your considered view of by what percentage average UK house prices will rise or fall next year.
If that seems a bit complicated just wet your finger, raise it in the air, and tell us which way the wind is blowing. Or just guess.
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Have tried to vote but will not let me choose a box. I predict a fall of between 5% and 10% nationally but we are very lucky in Suffolk as people still very keen to move here so I predict a fall of up to 5% locally.
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Some areas will … but others will suffer less % falls….the best homes in great locations will hold steady for example.The technology constantly changes but the principal dynamics of the housing market remain unchanged by time.
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It is of course very unhelpful for persons such as Harry to bleat on about a property crash .Housing market supported by sentiment to a large degree -so thanks Harry -good luck at PB !
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When the market is hot there is inevitably a lot of froth and some people were paying big premiums to secure a house, in some cases 10% – 15% in our area. When the market cools the froth dissipates so prices revert to a more sustainable level and it also probably drops back a bit as well so if prices come off around 5% from the equilibrium it is possible to argue that some price have fallen by 15% – 20% but have the real prices fallen by that much? Those properties that achieved a big premium are usually the most sought after properties hence the premium so even in a tight market they are likely to sell so I think we will see prices come off by around 5% for houses. The flat market has a different set of problems particularly in London. Now H2B has finished who wants to pay £600,000 for a small 2 bed flat that is more often than not car free. Selling second hand flats that were sold on H2B for anywhere near what they paid has been very hard for the past 4/5 years, now the mortgage rate has gone up I think that part of the market will see prices fall by a lot more. This will in turn pull other flats down with them until you get to the much more expensive part of the market which I think will be more in line with the fall in prices of houses.
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